Has Erik ten Hag don enough to Keep his Job?
In the last six months Manchester United under Erik ten Hag has been as unpredictable as my toddler’s daily mood. One week United might lose 4-3 to a team like Copenhagen. Then the next week, they dig out a 4-3 win in a thrilling cup match against Liverpool. As as result Erik ten Hag’s job security has been a regular point of contention this season.
Personally, barring threat of relegation or a total falling out, I find it ridiculous to talk about sacking a manager inside of three seasons. Especially given all of the extenuating circumstances surrounding United’s current form. However, despite the win against Liverpool, United have had a season to forget.
So far this campaign, Manchester United have dropped 55 points across all competitions. 37 points in the premier league, 14 in the Champions League, and 3 in the League Cup. Meaning, United have dropped almost as many points as they have won since August.
This dismal record has started to force even the most devout ten Hag supporters, like me, to question the merit of allowing him to stay at the helm beyond this season. Many of us still cling to hope that ten Hag will still come good. But, at what cost?
The Arguments Against Erik ten Hag
Considering my newfound indecisiveness about the United boss, the following is my attempt to make sense of both sides of the argument. Is there a clear path forward, or are United fans yet again forced to accept the lesser of two evils?
Ten Hag Has Lost the Dressing Room
There is growing concern that Erik ten Hag has lost the dressing room.
First there was the row between Ronaldo and ten Hag that ended with Ronaldo verbally demolishing United on live television before walking away from the club. Since then, players including Sancho, Rashford, Garnacho, Casemiro, Antony, Varane, Maguire, and Martial have all been benched by ten Hag for issues with discipline or form.
The row between Jadon Sancho and the manager became so severe that Sancho was exiled to train by himself, before being loaned to Dortmund. There is a good chance that he will never play for United again. Yet, when purchased under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer he was lauded as the next great United winger.
When you look at the players on the field, their performances are tantamount to athletes that are mentally and physically exhausted. Even in the 4-3 win against Liverpool, United gave away two of those goals from sloppy, disorganized, pedestrian defending. Imagine if United had been playing to their full potential…or if they had been playing to their worst potential…
All of these issues suggest that the manager lacks the man management skills required to motivate the players, build a strong culture, and amicably eradicate the players that continue to have a negative influence. Not every great manager can manage great players or a great club. Maybe United is just too big for Erik ten Hag.
Manchester United Have No Identity or Clear Style of Play
One of the greatest responsibilities for a manager is to clearly define the identity of the team. Every successful manager has a well defined style. But, this season, the Red Devils lack anything resembling definition or identity.
Jamie Carragher pointed out after the Fulham match that even when United win, players seem habitually caught in two minds. It is as if they are being told to press high and defend deep at the same time. He went further and pointed out that his leads to players being constantly out of position. So much so, that many players are caught in positions where they can neither defend effectively, assist the man on the ball, nor make any constructive movements off the ball.
The contradictory tactics, lack of pace and awareness to recover, and number of times players are out of position are all arguably issues with coaching.
Ten Hag is either unclear in his instruction, or is not using the right tact to reach all squad members. It is also very possible that the managers strict demands are placing undue pressure on the players. Meanwhile, his stubbornness is evidence enough that he will likely not change his methods.
Erik ten Hag’s Transfer History
Many proponents of sacking the Manchester United manager have also called into question his recruitment history. Signings like Christian Eriksen and Lisandro Martinez have been celebrated for their ingenuity and unexpected impact. But they are the minority. The bulk of Erik ten Hag’s signings have left us wanting in one way or another.
Rasmus Hojlund –
The manager was so desperate for a striker this summer he allowed a deal for $75 million for a 20 year old with less than a dozen senior goals to his name. That’s $20 million more than Haaland cost City! And we bought him with a broken back! I So far, I think he has been a good player for United. But a good player and a good deal are not the same thing, and United got hosed on this deal.
Tyrell Malacia –
Brought in to provide competition to Luke Shaw, Malacia has done anything but. Most of this season he has been plagued with injuries. However, even when fit his tenacity and pace have done little to make anyone think that Shaw’s starting position is in jeopardy.
Casemiro –
A $55 million transfer fee and a $350k/week contract for a player on the wrong side of 30, who has trouble staying fit and a new found penchant for red cards. His impact from last season has failed to translate to this campaign. The grit and vision that previously defined his success has now become a liability as his pace and endurance have begun to wane.
Antony –
$85 million for a one trick pony, with not enough pace or intelligence to beat a man! Antony has only managed 12 goals and 6 assists in 74 appearances for United!!! For a little more perspective, Antony has as many yellow cards (12) for United as goals (12). Why ten Hag still backs him is a mystery and testament to the managers cache of poor decisions.
Mason Mount –
Mount may still come good after an injury plagued season. It is probably unfair to judge him yet. However, $55 million for a player who was purchased with an existing injury, on the last year of his contract, who hardly made an impact the season before, was bad business no matter how you frame it.
Andre Onana –
The one time Champions League star was bought to allow United to play out of the back and to provide a more dominant presence in the box than David De Gea. But, so far he has cost us more points than he has saved us. We are no better at playing out of the back. And I would argue he was the main reason United were dumped out of Europe.
Loan Deals –
Not one of Erik ten Hags incoming loans have made a positive impact on results.
Sergio Reguilon was returned to Tottenham after half a season, despite Malacia, Shaw, Martinez, and Wan-Bissaka all still being injured in January. Amrabat has either been played out of position, injured, on international duty, or ineffective. Jack Butland never played a match for United. Martin Dubravka was sent back to Newcastle after playing only two matches. Last but not least, Wout Weghorst, need I say more?…
The only player loaned to United that could be considered anything but a total waste of money was Marcel Sabitzer. But, even he was barely a step up from Donny Van de Beek.
Erik ten Hag’s Mediocre In-Match Management
At times, Erik ten Hag can appear to make some downright terrible in-match decisions. He can be slow to make substitutions or tactical changes. And the changes he does make, have on average this season, not had the necessary game changing impact.
During matches he makes substitutions too late. He plays players that are not fit. And he relentlessly sticks to tactics and players that are actively failing. Managers are meant to turn the tide when things aren’t working on the pitch. Ferguson on his own, won United more points than any single player simply from his clarity and tactical awareness.
Ten Hag is meant to be apart of the next generation of great managers. Yet, this season, he appears to be a deer lost in the headlights. There are too many losses this season that can be blamed on poor in-match tactical decisions.
Whatever excuses there may be, United players don’t look like a well drilled team. Erik ten Hag has had almost eight months to find a working formula for this season, regardless of injuries, new signings or disruptive influences in the dressing room. Even the most patient fans will be questioning his approach.
The Excuse Factory is Open for Business
The problem I am having agreeing with all of these arguments is that I feel they make a scapegoat out of Erik ten Hag. And they do it without considering the other factors that have pushed Manchester United to this point. The real problems behind these issues have transcended the manager entirely.
Has Erik ten Hag Really Lost the Dressing Room?
The short answer to this question, NO. Has he lost some of the players, yes. But, losing the support of a few players is not losing the dressing room.
Players being benched or appearing frustrated does not automatically mean they have fallen out with the manager. Garnacho, Casemiro, Maguire, Antony and Varane have all been disciplined or benched for poor form, yet none of them has a problem with putting in a professional performance.
Players don’t have to like or agree with the manager. But, they do have to give all of their effort for the club and they have to do as they are told. Just like any other job. Players need to take responsibility for their own motivation and drive. These are professionals at the highest level. They should be able to take responsibility for their own efforts. Anything less then that and failure becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
In reality the only player that appears to me to have completely fallen out with the manager is Sancho.
Absolutely, players seem exhausted, burnt out, and struggling to keep up with ten Hag’s demands. But there are a lot of other reasons for that. I don’t think that incontrovertibly means he has lost the dressing room just because players don’t seem happy.
Ten Hag’s Transfer History
Ten Hag’s transfer history at United has been dismal. That being said the bulk of the blame can be just as easily pointed at the United owners.
The Glazers, Richard Arnold and John Murtaugh are in charge of transfer negotiations and spending. They chose to spend ridiculous money on players that were not worth it. And they chose not to hire a director of football to steer the ship.
Instead United have a banker and a former physio making transfer decisions. This has led to United habitually overpaying, both in transfer fees and wages. It has also led to managers getting third or fourth choice signings, being forced to swallow commercially driven signings they didn’t ask for, and an overreliance on the manager for recruitment targets.
As a result every post Ferguson manager has become a patsy for the United hierarchy, who either refuse or don’t care enough to try to implement a modern, effective, and football oriented front office. Further reinforcing the argument that ten Hag is simply doing his best to mediate the continued shortcomings of United’s lack of, or failing infrastructure.
INJURIES, INJURIES, INJURIES!
A lot of blame is also being thrown ten Hag’s way regarding how the team are playing, tactics, the players comprehension of their jobs, and the managers in match management. While there is also a lot of criticism that the players look passionless and exhausted.
However, the likely source for all of that is injuries not the manager. Of course the squad looks exhausted and therefor lacking in enthusiasm. With how many players have been missing this season everyone is being called into action. Every senior player that is fit is being ridden into the ground.
Additionally, how is a manager meant to implement consistent tactics, formations or lineups when at times more than half the senior squad has been unavailable.
The following is the number of matches each United player has missed this season, for one reason or another.
Garnacho, 2 (disciplinary). Rashford, 3 (disciplinary). Evans, 5 (injury). Dalot, 3 (suspension) 2 (illness). Amrabat, 6 (injury) 3 (AFCON duty). Varane, 7 (injury) 2 (disciplinary). Maguire, 9 (injury) 2 (illness). Eriksen, 8 (injury) 3 (illness). Lindelof, 10 (injury) 2 (illness). Wan-Bissaka 12 (injury) 2 (illness). Hojlund, 13 (injury). Martial 16 (injury) 2 (illness). Shaw 19 (injury) 2 (illness). Casemiro 18 (injury) 1 (disciplinary). Mainoo 17 (injury). Martinez 25 (injury). Mount 26 (injury). Amad 27 (injury). Sancho, 37 (disciplinary). Malacia 38 (injury).
United Players Deserve Blame
Another problem that Erik ten Hag has had to deal with is the existing mentality of many of the players. Something that has been called out by every post Ferguson era manager. How many times have United players been found wanting, had their passion or drive called into question, or been criticized for their lack of professionalism? Not just this season but regularly in the last decade?
There are too many bluffers at Manchester United. Both historically in recent years, and in the current squad . Unfortunately for the players, the one thing Erik ten Hag is not is a bluffer. This seasons form can in part be blamed on the fact that ten Hag was brought into United to change the culture. Through that process, many of the Untied players have been found out. And it takes time to move on a replace those players.
In the past, the pedestrian pace at which United’s front office has worked at addressing this issue has led to managers being sacked, as the perception the manager has lost the dressing room builds. However, as Sir Alex always famously said, no player can ever be bigger than the club. Especially when giving up appears to be a growing sentiment amongst United players.
It feeds into the mentality that the player is more important than than the club. It shows the manager that he can be mutinied on if he refuses to placate United’s most marketable players. All the while it allows the owners the opportunity to point the finger at the manager when things ultimately go wrong.
United have failed to learn from these experiences for too long. And none of that is Erik ten Hag’s fault.
Modern Football Requires Intelligence to Match Skill
There is one final argument that I feel deserves recognition. The collective IQ of the current Manchester United squad is not high enough to meet the demands of elite football.
This generations most successful clubs have shown that they can assemble a group of players that is as physically talented as they are intelligent. With managers like Guardiola, Klopp, and Ancelotti leading the way, the demand on the modern player has increased exponentially.
Unfortunately, Manchester United’s players’ collective football IQ is one of the lowest in top flight football. Yet another problem that Erik ten Hag inherited.
The real barrier behind the managers inability to significantly improve overall team intelligence is in large due to the front office. United’s scouting network is weak. Their analytics and sports medicine department is so threadbare that they cant possibly provide the data and analysis that has become standard operating procedure at clubs like Manchester City and Bayern Munich.
Again another failing of the United owners and front office. Again another barrier that every manager, including ten Hag, has been forced to mediate. And again another reason why most managers post Sir Alex have been sacked.
Manchester United at the Mercy of the Glazers
How is any manager meant to implement a new culture when too many players that actively disrupt the process are not moved on? How is he meant to implement pattens of play or set tactics with so many injuries? When are people going to call out the bluffers in the team over the manager? How is he meant to find the right players when the front office cares more about the marketing pull of a player than his mentality and suitability for this team? And how are the right players to be identified and recruited without a competent front office, analytics department or scouting network?
All of these questions are not new to Manchester United fans or managers. These are the same questions and the same problems we have been struggling with since Sir Alex retired. And they can all be traced back to the Glazers.
Disruptive players come down to either poor recruitment or an inability/lack of desire to sell. Injury issues that become so severe that they impact the teams tactics and culture are down to a lack of quality in depth. And systemic issues with poor player character and intelligence is almost always down to years of poor recruitment decisions.
Arguably every signing of ten Hag’s, including the failures, cannot be accused of weak mentality. And the majority, like Eriksen, Martinez and Casemiro have arguably some of the highest footballing IQ’s in the game. More proof that this team is not yet purged of the bad eggs that have infected it. And all the more reason to give the manager more time to work with INEOS.
Who Could Replace Erik ten Hag?
Right now, whether or not anyone at Manchester United is willing to admit it, I agree with Gary Neville. I think INEOS have made up their minds about Erik ten Hag.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that he is definitely getting sacked. But it does mean that INEOS appears to have a plan, and they don’t seem shy about making big decisions quickly.
Right now the names most linked with Old Trafford are Gareth Southgate, Graham Potter, Roberto De Zerbi, Thomas Tuchel, Antonio Conte and Zinedine Zidane.
Personally, I don’t think Southgate or Potter are good enough for United. They both play boring football, and boast some of the worst goal scoring records amongst managers to have coached a top team. De Zerbi looks a great manager on the rise, but other then punching above his weight at Brighton, one of the best run clubs in the league, I’m left wanting. Where is the evidence he can manage a club as big as United?
Thuchel and Conte are both way too volatile. After United’s experience with Rangnick, Jose and Van Gaal, I cant see them wanting to get into bed with another unfiltered or prima donna manager any time soon.
Zidane is the only manager that I would welcome with open arms. He has managed some of the biggest egos in the world at one of the biggest teams in the world. And his trophy cabinet is beyond reproach both as a player and manager. Unfortunately, in the past he has not been shy about expressing his extreme distaste for United, making him a longshot.
Erik ten Hag: Patsy Not Problem
Erik ten Hag is paying for Manchester United’s past failures, like all his recent predecessors. Not just in the transfer market but in past manager choices. As well as in their choices of front office structure and personnel. Problems that would likely not exist if the owners hired an experienced CEO and DOF.
However, the Glazers have habitually had less interest in the team’s success, than the marketability of the club.
I couldn’t possibly sit here and say with any sense of self respect that Erik ten Hag has been infallible at Manchester Untied. However, what I can say is, before he was brought in to Old Trafford, United fans were convinced he was the man to return the club to glory. And, if we were to poll most United fans in a blind survey, on paper the style, tactics, and approach of Erik ten Hag fits the description of most fans perfect manager.
We were so incredibly convinced of him that the second he signed he was touted to win the Premier League. Has the last six months tarnished his potential so much as a manger that we have forgotten who has been running this club? If so then the Glazers tactics are working and we as fans are not doing our job.
Reality Harbors No Sentiment
The reality of Manchester United’s situation is that regardless of whether United stick or twist on Erik ten Hag this summer, change needs to happen. The real argument is where that change is needed most.
In the past the Glazers have taken advantage of this club so much that every transfer or managerial decision has become an exercise in prognosticating failure. Which inevitably ends in the blame being piled onto the manager.
As if broader matters couldn’t get worse for Erik ten Hag, new owners almost always bring in a new manager. Regardless of his potential or any results for the rest of the season, it appears ten Hag is on borrowed time.
If the United manager was punching well above his weight and getting players to fall into line, then he would have a chance at keeping his job. But, his situation is anything but. History suggests that, barring United qualifying for the Champions League and winning a trophy, like last season, the Dutchman is nothing more than another caretaker manager.
I would personally like to see INEOS give Erik ten Hag the foundation he needs to succeed, and see how he does. He did enough last season to prove his potential. I also think his current position is too circumstantial and down to poor club infrastructure to point the finger solely at him.
While I want to see Erik ten Hag succeed at United, all things considered, I find it hard to believe he will be at Old Trafford next season. It would appear that the United machine has chewed up and spit out another manager.
Glory, Glory Man United.
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