Manchester United’s Summer Midfield Rebuild

Manchester United in Need of Reinforcements

As a Manchester United fan there is no disembarking the transfer rumor train. It runs twenty-four-seven-three-sixty-five, supplying the Red Devils constituency with a constant stream of prospective talent.

While the train never stops running, it has seemingly switched tracks. Now providing nothing more than a veritable cornucopia of whomever happens to be available. There is no real direction, no one to get excited about. Just names on a registrar and a track leading to oblivion.

Regardless, Manchester United appears primed for evolution this summer. With rumors indicating that they will acquire as many as six new first team players. And, they will look to offload as many as ten. It also looks likely that two to three of those six recruits will be central midfielders.

The reason for Manchester United’s focus on the center of the pitch? Casemiro has announced, and reiterated, his planned departure at the end of the season. United are reportedly set on selling Manuel Ugarte. Kobbie Mainoo is still only 20 years old. And, all of United’s other squad members who could play in midfield are all too attacking oriented.

Hence, reports that the front office has identified the numbers 6 and 8 positions as their priority in this summer transfer window.

Summer of 26′ Transfer Window a Logistical Nightmare

Be that as it may, even the best laid plans tend to fail at Old Trafford. The Manchester United front office always manages to trip over their own feet. Or allow themselves to be taken advantage of. There is always a reason, an excuse, or a justification for the clubs continued decrepitude. Yet somehow, the Red Devils always find a way to keep us coming back to the punch bowl for one more sip of the tainted Kool-Aid.

This summer appears to be no different.

As such, yet again, extenuating circumstances, and not due diligence will likely dictate United’s transfer dealings. The following are just a few of those circumstances that the Old Trafford front office needs to resolve if they want to have any hope of seeing their summer plans to fruition.

The Manager

First off, the obvious. Manchester United’s managerial situation remains unresolved.

In the search for a new manager, the club appear comfortable recruiting based on colloquial opinion and process of elimination. Rather than a coherent plan. What’s more, the Red Devils front office seems bereft of a transfer strategy without a permanent coach.

Regardless of whomever at the club is controlling the scouting department, the club still capitulates to whatever recruitment strategy the manager wants. Or, at the very least gives the manager final say over what players the club recruits.

There is simply no sign of any kind of transcendent vision.

Meanwhile, that lack of a proactive strategy has left United squandering in the dark for second rate appointments, once again. Only a month ago, the Red Devils were linked with the likes of Carlo Ancelotti, Thomas Tuchel and Luis Enrique. Now the bookies are calling Michael Carrick as United’s most likely long term appointment.

All analysis regarding the next manager aside, there is an underlying message here. That is, if United are going to rely on the coaching staff to guide their recruitment process, then naming a new manager is the next and most consequential decision the Old Trafford front office needs to make.

The World Cup

Tying into the managerial and player recruitment situation is the World Cup.

Manchester United was fairly bullish for a short time about there recruitment strategy. Reports initially indicated that they were confident they could sign both an elite manager and several highly rated player targets in time for their preseason tour. However, the World Cup presents a significant barrier to negotiations because several shortlisters are currently coaching or playing for teams participating in the tournament.

Ancelotti, Tuchel, Pochettino, and Nagelsmann were all high on United’s wishlist. However, since they began approaching the respective camps of these coaches, Jason Wilcox and Omar Berrada have found one brick wall after another. Mainly in the form of exploitative release clauses.

Regarding player recruitments, there are some rumors circulating that jason Wilcox has already opened up negotiations with several prospective players. Specifically, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Elliot Anderson. However, United’s top two prospects in Guimaraes and Anderson will be representing Brazil and England respectively. Meaning, deals for either player are likely to be stalled by the summer competition.

I love the jubilee of the World Cup as much as any football fan. Regardless, the world’s greatest sporting competition represents a four week blackout period in any clubs attempts to recruit new managers or players. Effectively increasing competition for signatures and decreasing the amount of time new recruits have to assimilate to their new clubs.

MONEY!

In terms of funds, simply put, Manchester United are broke.

The club has $1.3 billion in debt. They owe more than $500 million in payables due for amortized transfer deals. They’ve maxed out their revolver credit line at $400 million. And, they only have $40 million in the bank.

Making matters more tenable, there is little to no equity within the current squad to make up the difference. Zirkzee, Mount, Ugarte, Malacia, Onana, Bayindir, Hojlund, Rashford, and Dalot are all in the shop window. However, the only financial benefit to selling all of them is clearing their wages off the books. The collective amount they could be sold for would barely make a dent in the amount of money still owed for most of them.

The club did recently post record revenue. But, its all for nothing when they also posted record increases in debt. Ratcliffe simply doesn’t have any more money to pump into United. And, he has maxed out the club’s credit card. Meanwhile, of course the Glazers have no interest in ever investing their own money to help matters.

Manchester United’s finances are as bad as it gets without going bankrupt. If they fail to qualify for Champions League next season there is an extremely high likelihood they will violate FFP rules. As it stands, even if United manage to hold on to European qualification, that income may not be enough to cover their operating costs for the first quarter of next season. Most likely leading to another increase in the revolver limit and more debt.

What I fear most is recent reports that United only have $150 million to spend this summer. Which, despite being a sizable amount of money for most clubs, is almost certainly not enough to cover United’s summer transfer plans.

Bruno Fernandes

Sadly, the Manchester United skipper is a void of uncertainty. The last two summers our Portuguese magnifico has been on the cusp of leaving.

Last summer, the club even went so far as to outright tell Bruno he could pursue other opportunities, after receiving nine figure offers for him from the Saudi league.

Bruno felt so slighted by the clubs laissez-faire attitude towards his future, he has since come out in an interview on British tv heavily criticizing the front office. He labeled the club’s handling of the situation as ‘cowardly and disloyal’.

The combination of United’s financially driven perspective, and how well Bruno has been performing this season has already begun to stir speculation that this may be the United captains swan song season in the EPL.

Fortunately, Bruno’s love for Manchester United is as undeniable as the front office’s willingness to sell him. And apparently last summer, that love combined with a promising conversation with Ruben Amorim was enough to convince him to stay.

However, Amorim is no longer with United. And the coaching situation at Old Trafford remains unresolved. Adding to the tension over his future, Bruno’s agent recently revealed that the United captain has a $55 million release clause should he leave to a non EPL team.

There have since been rampant rumors that Bayern Munich, PSG, Real Madrid and several Saudi teams have all approached Fernandes’s camp about a change of scenery. Should United have to replace not just their best player but a top five player in the world, for only $55 million…Lets just say that we have yet to see how low this team can really go. Bruno and Casemiro have been carrying this squad for four years. To lose both of them in the same window is tantamount to disaster.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe

Since taking over operational control of Manchester United, Sir Jim Ratcliffe has become his own worst enemy.

The British billionaire wasted hundreds of millions of dollars sanctioning deals for the wrong managers, wrong players… And, apparently the wrong DOF. He promised a new stadium, but looks lightyears from following through. He cut several popular club initiatives and laid off hundreds of employees. Since his arrival ticket prices have gone up. The club’s debt has increased by almost 40%. And recently, Ratcliffe has also seen fit to ignore his standing and influence as a football club owner by spouting inaccurate, offensive, politically charged statements about UK immigration policies.

This has led to speculation about a clause in Ratcliffe’s contract. It allows the Glazers to buy him out at market value for his shares in the club. Which, at the moment, is half of what they were worth when Sir Jim bought them. Ratcliffe would stand to lose close to $600 million if this clause was activated.

The stipulation that could trigger his buyout is whether or not Manchester United qualify for Champions League. Not only would the revenue aid in United’s financial troubles, it is a performance metric stipulated in Ratcliffe’s contract. He must get the club to qualify for Europe in his first three years. Otherwise the Glazers can trigger the buyout clause.

Ratcliffe is clearly in over his head. Leaving United’s ownership situation ambiguous at best. Adding yet another impugnable element to the clubs long term planning.

Manchester United’s Top Priority in the Transfer Market

That being said, regardless of what happens with Ratcliffe, Bruno or Carrick, pretty much every pundit and fan agrees on one thing. Transfer targets! The current consensus is, the focus for the Old Trafford front office needs to be central midfield.

United only have three traditional central midfielders. Midfielders that can play as a number 8 or a 6. Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte.

However, despite widespread calls for Casemiro to stay at United, he has already announced he plans to leave at the end of his contract this summer. Even if United wanted to keep him his wages are so astronomical, he would have to take a massive pay cut to justify his resigning.

There also seems to be a consensus that despite all of his abilities, Mainoo is still too young to be considered United’s most senior midfielder. Or the squads only number 8. Meanwhile, Ugarte’s defensive stats are solid. But, his passing and possession stats are so dismal, not even Good Vibes Carrick can justify giving him too many minutes. Leading to reports that the Uruguayan is on his way out of Old Trafford this summer.

As an alternative, under Amorim we did see Bruno play as a number 8. But, Bruno as an 8 is like buying a Ferrari to commute to work. You’re never really utilizing its full potential. The Jeremy Clarksons of the world would even go so far as to say that it is an insult to the Ferrari to use it so parochially.

Even if by some miraculous stroke of the imagination Casemiro reverses his decision and takes a pay cut, United cannot rely on only two players in central midfield like they are now. Especially if they want to compete in the EPL and all three cup tournaments.

What Kind of Midfielder are the Red Devils Targeting?

First and foremost Bruno Fernandes’s future needs to be resolved as soon as possible. If he leaves this summer, replacing him at any cost needs to be Manchester United’s number one priority. While this squad is flush with players that can play as a number 10, none of them is Bruno Fernandes.

Given the broad assumption that Bruno will stay, this squad is in need of a destroyer. A player that can get stuck in, defend well in transition, win the ball back, and shut down opposition attacks before they reach the defensive third. But, we also need a player that can pass the ball with exceptional range. We need Casemiro 2.0. I would even argue that Untied needs two players of that ilk should both Ugarte and Casemiro leave.

I could also argue that United need a classic number 8. Like Carrick or Scholes, even Pogba or Ander Herrera. A player who can move the ball in transition. Play box to box and provide an outlet to recycle the ball. A player who can pass with vision, range, speed and accuracy. More specifically a player that can provide competition and/or mentorship to Mainoo.

However, recruiting three elite midfielders is hard enough on its own. It is likely to be an exceptionally tall order considering Manchester United’s summer wishlist, and the uncertainty surrounding Bruno’s future. The front office have identified the need for at least two new midfielders, a new full back, a keeper to replace Onana, Heaton and Bayindir, another number 9, a left winger, and possibly another centerback depending on Martinez and de Ligt’s long term injury prognoses’.

Who Should Manchester United Buy This Summer?

The ultimate endgame for Manchester United is to be competitive in the EPL and Champions League.

If that is the case, then the front office’s recruitment strategy needs to match that ambition. This means recruiting the best talent available. Not just the best players in England. To see a comprehensive shortlist of the clubs prospective midfield recruits, please see part one in this series of posts titled Manchester United’s Summer Midfield Transfer Targets.

Based on that list there is one player that stands out as a generational talent whom Manchester United should pursue with all haste. That player is Eduardo Camavinga. He lacks Premier League experience, but his output and his potential far surpass anyone else on United’s shortlist. There are some that even believe he has Ballon d’Or potential.

In addition to Camavinga, I find the rumors that United are in advanced negotiations over a deal for Bruno Guimaraes particularly exciting. Guimaraes’s stats show he is one of the best and most underrated midfielders in the world. His positional flexibility, leadership and overall metrics are elite. A midfield three of Bruno Fernandes, Bruno Guimaraes and Camavinga has title winners written all over it. Especially with Kobbie Mainoo signing a contract extension. The thought of having those four as United’s midfield options is a savory prospect.

Unfortunately, transfer journalism guru Fabrizio Romano reports that Real Madrid have no desire to sell Camavinga. Which in my opinion, makes Casemiro’s Brazil understudy, Ederson the runner up. His stats are as good as his mentor. Meanwhile, Atalanta’s asking price of $45 million only makes his acquisition that much more enticing.

Who Will Manchester United Buy This Summer?

However, in recent weeks Romano has also released several statements regarding Manchester United’s summer plans. According to the transfer guru, Sandro Tonali, Elliot Anderson, Bruno Guimaraes, Miles Lewis-Skelly, Lews Hall, Robert Lewandowski, and Yan Diomande are all players that United have already entered negotiations with.

Frustratingly, he goes on to say that despite United holding negotiations with these players, Manchester City are the frontrunners for Anderson’s signature. Meanwhile, despite United having agreed terms with the players, Newcastle have no interest in letting both Tonali and Guimaraes go in the same window. Especially not to the same club. And, especially not to United after how the whole Dan Ashworth situation went down.

The only promising aspect of Romano’s reports is that he mentions four different midfielders that United are actively trying to recruit. Which at least seems like a small step in the right direction given United’s past propensity for last minute transfer business.

Considering reports from Romano as well as David Ornstein and Simon Stone, the only certainty about Manchester United’s summer midfield rebuild is that the front office is prioritizing players with EPL experience. Which sadly drops Camavinga and Ederson down the priority list. It also means that United are likely going to have a to pay a premium for any new signings, as EPL proven talent does not come cheap.

Worryingly so, if United only have $150 million to spend in the summer, as reports indicate, then there is simply no way they will be able to buy the host of players Romano is claiming are actively negotiating with the Red Devils.

Will History Repeat Itself

For the sake of argument, I am going to write off the club’s reported summer budget as a thinly veiled attempt from the front office to prevent other teams from trying to overprice their players in an effort to exploit more money from United.

Simply put, Manchester United’s transfer plans are about as incognito as screaming baby on an airplane. If Romano, Ornstein and Stone are all correct regarding Tonali, Guimaraes and Anderson, then United needs to find another midfielder.

This leads me to believe that the club will soon reopen their pursuit of Carlos Baleba. He is not the most cost effective choice. But Jason Wilcox and Christopher Vivell seem to rate him higher than any of the other viable candidates.

Manchester United do love a cheap and easy option. Which suggests that they are more likely to chase players like Adam Wharton, Joao Gomes, Alex Scott or Tyler Adams. Whom the Red Devils are all linked to.

That being said Manchester United also love to overspend when convinced of their player analyses. Names like Antony, Hojlund and Zirkzee all come to mind. Carlos Baleba fits that bill. According to the Athletic, Brighton and Hove Albion want $80 million for their prodigal son. And, given that United have chased Baleba in the last three transfer windows, I cannot put it past the front office to repeat history and overpay for a player they are convinced of.

Manchester United’s Transfer Endgame

The facts regarding Manchester United’s summer midfield rebuild are as follows.

First and foremost, Manchester United need a replacement CDM above all other positions. They are also desperate for more depth in midfield overall. Especially if Bruno Fernandes’s future remains a question mark. It is also clear that the Red Devils front office is prioritising youth and EPL experience as its preferred virtues.

I would even go so far as to say that United’s limited budget and club-wide problems make it highly unlikely that we will see the sweeping changes in the squad that the reports coming out of Old Trafford have indicated.

However, if Manchester United can, despite their financial, pitchside, and ownership problems manage to hold on to Bruno Fernandes, and recruit at least two of the aforementioned six priority targets (Camavinga, Ederson, Tonali, Guimaraes, Anderson or Baleba)! Regardless of the combinations, then there are the beginnings of a world class midfield forming between them and Bruno.

It is hard not seeing Manchester United doing significant business in the summer. The squad is too thin. Too many of the teams stalwart players are confirmed or rumored to be leaving. And, there are still too many deadweight players that need to be moved on. However, United tend to move at a snail’s pace in the transfer market. Not to mention, they habitually handicap themselves by not recruiting with anything resembling fiscal responsibility.

So, as usual, only time will tell if and how Manchester United will pull it all off. Stay tuned…

Glory, Glory Man United!