Michael Carrick is at the Wheel
Despite the loss to Newcastle, Michael Carrick is still firmly at the wheel at Old Trafford. Since replacing Ruben Amorim he has managed a record of 6-1-1. With 14 goals scored across six players, three clean sheets and a +6 goal difference. Carrick’s quick work has led the Red Devils into third place with a three point advantage over Liverpool and Chelsea. Thanks to the interim boss, United have the best form in the EPL having only lost one match in their last twelve.
To have these players playing so well considering the state of the squad’s mentally after Amorim’s lackluster tenure is remarkable. Not only has Carrick managed a miraculous turn around, he has done it while having to play teams like Manchester City and Arsenal.
Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes have been unleashed. Casemiro has found a new best friend in his interim boss. Mbeumo and Cunha have continued their scintillating form. Benjamin Sesko is becoming a force to be reckoned with. And overall, the squad are playing silky, attractive, never-say-die football.
But what sums up Carricks success more than any of that… Lisandro Martinez said in a recent interview, “for me, when you touch my heart, I will give everything for you and he’s touched it already, and you can see that on the pitch we give everything.” I don’t think a more promising assessment exists of a manager.
Carrick is Playing with Fire
Carrick, as far as anyone can tell, is not a tactical savant. He is simply a guy who knows the club and knows how player psychology works. However, we have yet to see any evidence that he has the ability to inspire. Or, if he can maintain his players respect when shit hits the fan. Or, just how flexible his tactical range really is.
Speaking to that inflexibility, he is too married to playing the same starting line up. Carrick only seems interested in rotating when players pick up an injury like with Licha, Maguire and Dorgu. Which gives rise to the questions, what happens to Mount or de Light when they come back from injury? Or will Malacia, Zirkzee, Ugarte or Bayindir ever have a prominent roll under Carrick?
Such questions even give credence to further uncertainty. In the hypothetical scenario that Carrick stays United boss next season…Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, Andre Onana and Rasmus Hojlund are all still technically United players…
Given the Manchester United front office’s lack of efficiency and pragmatism, there is a high likelihood that one if not most of these loanees will need to be reintegrated into the squad. The only player that is almost guaranteed to never play for United again is Jadon Sancho. And that guarantee only exists because his contract expires this summer, at which point he will be released as a free agent.
So, what will Carrick do if any or all of these players show up at Carrington in July wanting to know where they stand? What will he do when his tactics fail, like against Newcastle.
Thus far Michael Carrick’s approach seems a tad parochial. Which makes it hard to see how he is going to adapt when more complicated challenges confront him.
What has Carrick Changed?
There are a lot of questions that need to be answered in Carrick’s bid to be the long term manager for Manchester United. The loss to a ten man Newcastle should be viewed as a litmus test of sorts for what is to come if Carrick cannot adapt.
For now, the more pressing uncertainty about the interim boss pertains to his methods. What are the sources of his success so far? And, will that be enough to secure his candidacy to become permanent manager?
So far, the his ability to improve team performances and moral has been down to simplifying things. While that path works to settle a club in turmoil, it does very little by way of winning trophies. As Solskjaer can attest to. He made it to four semifinals and one final in two seasons without bringing home a trophy.
However, in spite of Carrick’s back to basics approach, he seems to have a very different aura than any of his predecessors. The same aura that made him such a reliable stalwart in Sir Alex Ferguson’s eleven.He brings that aura to the dressing room, which for the moment seems to be just the dose of medicine this team needed.
\What we don’t know about Carrick’s side is how they will react to adversity. Losing to Newcastle, after being up a man for 50 minutes is exactly the kind of result that has historically sent this squad on a downward spiral.
With Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, and historical rivals Leeds all on the horizon, this loss will either be the foothold Carrick needs to prove he can manage this team under pressure, or it will be the beginning of the end for the high flying United legend.
Good Vibes Carrick
Like Ole Mr Nice Guy, Good Vibes Carrick has touched the players hearts, as Martinez says. It is a play right out of Ferguson’s book.
He got the squad on his side by instilling them with confidence. Sometimes, players just need to know they have the faith of the manager and the freedom to express themselves.
Carrick has done this by starting Mainoo in all eight of his matches in charge. Bruno has been reinstated to his favored position. Dorgu was given the opportunity to play in a more attacking roll. He convinced Casemiro to end his Untied tenure on a high. While Shaw just seems happy to have one of his old boys back. Meanwhile, the leaders of the dressing room like, Licha, Maguire, and Bruno have all talked about how Carrick has given the players a foundation of calm and trust.
By doing so they feel more freedom to express themselves on the pitch. They also have more desire to fight back when they are losing, and go for the jugular when they are winning. As is evidenced by six late goals in Carrick’s eight matches.
Carrick-Ball
The second thing Carrick has done is change the tactics. He has gone back to the more traditional 4-2-3-1, with minor changes in shape depending on the phase of play. This base formation is one that most of the players are fluent with. The interim manager has also reworked how United take set pieces making them more creative and dangerous in dead ball scenarios.
Playing in a familiar formation makes things more instinctual for athletes allowing them to think less and play faster more efficient football. Carrick has merely taken the guesswork out of the formation to allow the squad to play more fluidly in a system that maximizes their collective potential.
Exactly what we wanted Amorim to do.
He has also gone with the kitchen sink tactic which most footballers love. Sir Alex used to do this all the time. In the last 10-15 minutes of a match, winning or losing, you throw everything you have got at the opposition. The idea being that by the end of the match most teams begin to tire. So, that is when United needs to be at its most ruthless.
This approach has seen the Red Devils score in the last 15 minutes of matches to either rescue a draw or go on to win the match in six out of eight of Carrick’s games in charge. Meanwhile, United have also come from behind to win or draw in seven of eight matches. Those stats alone reinforce how effective he has been at motivating the players and the tactical shift that mental change allows for.
Michael Carrick for Manager?
After only eight matches there is a lot of support to have Michael Carrick made permanent manager. Or at least, have him considered for the job should he secure a top four finish. Even after losing to Newcastle.
There is no denying that Carrick is exceeding expectations. He clearly has the players on his side. He clearly has an understanding of the club and the league. And he clearly knows what the fans expect from a Manchester United squad.
However, as we learned with Ole, this can be a slippery slope.
A feel good manager’s authority is fickle at best. But, for a team to succeed that authority has to be absolute. Carrick has yet to face a situation where he has to put the hammer down. As a player who was known for his silent leadership, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of manager the players will ever come to fear.
Carrick also seriously lacks the experience needed to be United manager. His big break in coaching came as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s assistant and eventual interim replacement. He followed this up with a failed stint as Middlesbrough head coach. Not to mention, he has spent more time as a pundit than a manager.
Meaning, if Carrick is to be considered as a serious contender to be the next manchester United manager, he either has a lot to learn or a lot to prove. Either way, the next three months will be very telling about both this squad, and the manager’s true abilities.
Will Michael Carrick be the Next Permanent Manager?
For my money, Michael Carrick will not be the next permanent manager of Manchester United. Despite the bookies odds. Even forgetting for a moment about his lackluster CV, the writing was on the wall before he even took the job.
When Amorim was first sacked Ole, not Carrick, was the front runner for the job. However, that quickly changed when Ole apparently demanded he be given the position on a full time basis if he secured a top four finish. The moment that happened the Red Devil’s front office immediately vetoed Ole and hired Carrick.
The club has made it clear they have a grander vision for the next manager. And, they intend on fulfilling that vision regardless of how the team performs for the rest of the season. However, with complications arising across many of the candidates United are vetting, Carrick is in a unique position to do what Ole couldn’t, secure the position on merrit, should he finish the season in 3rd place.
In part two of this post, I go into more depth about the various managers Manchester United is attempting to recruit. Not wanting to dive down that rabbit hole in this moment, I can say that United are chasing a host of the worlds elite managers. However, the front office’s tommy gun approach is doing little to instill hope that they will land one of the games best managers. Leaving people to believe that Carrick is a genuine contender.
It would be naive to think that Carrick wouldn’t take the job if offered. It would also be naive for Untied to make the offer. Though for now it would seem that the club are doing everything they can ro replace him.
Manchester United’s Comedown to Reality
It is hard to argue against a manager who has picked up 19 of 24 available points. Even if it has only been eight matches. It is also hard to argue with the mentality and drive Carrick seems to have re-instilled in the squad. But, it is also clear as day that Carrick is handicapping this team as much as he is helping it.
Some of his calls can be deemed brave, pragmatic, even necessary. However, the flip side to this coin is his approach can also be deemed naive, inflexible, even dangerous.
Carrick’s choice to play Dorgu in an unfamiliar attacking roll is certainly a factor in his injury. This has the knock-on effect of forcing him to rely on Dalot more. Given Dalot’s habitually terrible distribution, decision making and positional awareness, relying on him means that Mbeumo and Amad, who are the two attackers that rotate in front of Dalot, have to constantly compensate. Meaning their productivity goes down.
Adding to the list, by not rotating centerbacks more, both Maguire and Licha have picked up muscle injuries recently. Leaving Carrick to rely on Yoro and Heaven who are both without confidence and match fitness because of a lack of game time.
And finally, not rotating fullbacks more means that Malacia and Mazraoui are not match fit. Thus when they are called upon because of Dorgu’s injury, or Shaw picking up a knock, or finally rotating Dalot to the bench, they become weak links on the pitch.
All of these criticisms were in fact reasons why United lost to a ten manned Newcastle. Not all of Carrick’s calls have created more problems then they have solved. But they are stacking up.
Michael Carrick the Bookies Favorite
The point is, while it would be naive of United to offer Carrick the job, none of this means that both the boss and the club won’t have a change of heart if United have a stellar second half of the season. With every point Carrick picks up the more of a contender he becomes. Even the bookies have him as the odds on favorite to take over full time.
But if he wants the job, he needs to show more flexibility. Both in his lineup selections, and in his tactical approach.
There are two sides to every story. We can choose to look at the team’s revival as the product of a reenstilled never say die attitude and a formation that maximizes squad potential. Or, we can look as it as United almost lost the Everton, West Ham and Fulham matches were it not for lucky late goals. They almost lost to Crystal Palace had it not been for a lucky penalty and red card. And they lost to 12th placed Newcastle who went a man down in the 45th minute. All because of his on field calls.
Michael Carrick’s inexperience is showing and the good vibes train won’t last forever. He needs to find another level and fast. Sir Alex Ferguson was the same age as Carrick is now when he took over at United in 1986. But by then he had won ten trophies with Aberdeen. The only thing Carrick has won is hearts and minds.
If the bookies are right and he is the favorite to take over, then he has a long way to go to prove he is the man for job and not merely a cheap and easy feel good option.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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