Hope at Old Trafford is Hanging By a Thread
Manchester United have had yet another lackluster result against Everton. Once again casting doubt over Ruben Amorim and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s abilities to bring trophies back to Old Trafford. It is rather remarkable how one poor performance can erase all of the hope and optimism that was building after a five match unbeaten run.
Now that the January transfer window is on the horizon, United need reinforcements now more than ever. Especially if they want to maintain what little belief is left in the squad. Or have a chance of making a charge for Champions League places.
For now, the Red Devils are only three points off of 4th place. But the mental fragility of this squad is shockingly bad. Just when we thought they had turned a corner, the same complacency and entitlement that has long plagued Manchester United has reared its head again. Further reinforcing Amorims scathing public assessment that this squad is still performing well below his standards.
Manchester United Seeking Reinforcements
Manchester United seem to have finally found their shooting boots with the additions of Sesko, Mbeumo and Cunha tallying 21 goals across 9 players in 13 matches.
However, concerns around United’s reliance on their newfound attack are beginning to arise. Especially now that Sesko has picked up an injury, Mbeumo is leaving for AFCON in a few weeks, and Cunha has had trouble staying fit since his arrival. Prompting rumors that Jason Wilcox and Amorim are scrambling to find a solution in the January transfer window.
This squad are also abhorrent at keeping the ball out of their own net. They have the worst goal difference of all but one team in the top eleven (0). A particularly scathing statistic if you consider how many goals they have scored.
Adding to the headache that Amorim has to deal with, United dont have a lot of spending power right now. Reports from the Athletic claim that Ratcliffe has only allotted $120 million to spend in the winter. While that is a sizable amount of money to the average club, many of the players United is monitoring come with a $70 million or higher price tag. Casting doubt over United’s ability to strengthen in the right in January.
Ruben Amorim’s Defensive Headache
There is an argument that United are much better off in defense than stats would indicate. Maguire and De Ligt have been revelations this season. Senne Lammens is commanding in his box and a breath of fresh air in net. Leny Yoro is still raw but looks the real deal. Meanwhile, the squad has been without arguably their best defender all season, Lisandro Martinez.
I should also point out that Casemiro’s new found fitness has him looking like the Casemiro of old. With him, United only concede a goal every 123 minutes. Whereas without the him they concede every 29 minutes. To put that into context, with Casemiro on the field United have only allowed 6 goals.
The signs are there that this squad has potential under Ruben Amorim. But I fear that this hope is taken out of context. Considering how bad last season was, even small improvements feel like giant strides forward. Which is all well and good until you look at the league table and United’s goal difference.
This squad have shipped 21 goals already this season. And, they have only kept one clean sheet against newly promoted Sunderland. It isn’t a stretch to say that Manchester United has the worst performing defense outside of the bottom five. Even their new found scoring prowess can’t keep up with the rate at which our defense allows goals.
Ruben Amorim’s Tactics Play to Manchester United’s Vulnerabilities
Frankly, this squad was just not built for Ruben Amorim’s tactics.
When in possession, Amorim requires one of the three centerbacks to push into midfield. Adding another player to help recycle the ball and shut down any opposition fast breaks.
Yet, when De Ligt or Maguire breaks into midfield, neither is a great passer nor has the recovery speed to track back when United lose the ball. Meanwhile, Shaw and Mazraoui are used to playing as fullbacks. Thus, when they push up, both are often caught too far up the pitch. Where as Yoro is still young and new to a back three. Meaning he often gets caught in two worlds when making a decision, leading to him being out of position or giving the ball away.
In any scenario United are left exposed on the counter and short on quality passing in the middle and defensive thirds.
Amorim also requires his wingbacks to push high up the pitch to provide service to the front three. However, our wingbacks are either young and prone to mistakes like Dorgu. They are played out of position like Amad and Mazraoui. Or they are Diogo Dalot. Regardless of who is playing, none of them is experienced as a wingback. Hence why United’s crosses from wingbacks per 90 are next to not and they allow too many free kicks from wide areas.
Luke Shaw, The Latest United Player to be Added to the Liability List
Personally, I have always had a soft spot for Luke Shaw. In part because he is the clubs longest serving player. In part because on his day he is one of the best fullbacks of his generation.
Unfortunately, in recent seasons Shaw has cemented himself as a liability as his pace and focus wanes with age. Not only has his fitness always been an issue, but his tallent no longer supersedes his availability to the extent that we can ignore his lack of gametime.
In the last four seasons, he has averaged missing more than half of United’s matches. His distance covered per match, number of sprints, successful dribbles, crosses into the box, xG and xA, chances created, successful tackles and interceptions have all dropped by more than half. And, almost half of the goals Manchester United have conceded have come from the left side because Shaw is constantly caught out of position.
Statistically speaking, Shaw is one of the worst defenders in the league this season.
Many are quick to blame Amorim’s inflexibility. Or the fact that Shaw is a fullback playing as a centerback. But I find this argument to be naive. Shaw has still played 90 minutes of every match for United this season, despite the arrival of Amorim. A players stats simply dont drop off a cliff over the span of years because of the manager. Shaw’s injury plagued career, the fact he has played under six managers at United and he is on the wrong side of 30 add up to a player simply in decline.
Manchester United’s Defensive Frailties
Statistics don’t lie. Shaw is not the only defender United have that is underperforming or struggling to succeed in Ruben Amorim’s style.
Maguire and De Ligt both have elite attacking and aerial stats for defenders, but rank in the bottom half of players for all defensive stats. In fact, both players rank in the bottom third of all defenders for tackles, blocks and clearances. What’s more, Maguire averages giving the ball away in dangerous areas twice per game. Often leading to a shooting opportunity for the opponent.
Both Dorgu and Yoro are young players still acclimating to the Premier League. Their inexperience means that both have been found wanting when playing against physically aggressive opposition. They are also both regularly caught out by the pace of the EPL.
That brings us to Diogo Dalot. Hardly any of his data suggests that Dalot is a good defender. Meanwhile, his attacking instincts are non existent. But perhaps Dalot’s most incriminating stats are, he gives the ball away more than any other United outfield player. While his passing percentages suggest he should be playing in a Sunday league not professional football.
The bottom line, United’s defense is nowhere near as good as we the fans aggrandize them to be.
The Bruno, Casemiro Conundrum
Amorim requires his two midfielders to be extremely dynamic and fit. While Bruno is a model of fitness and professionalism, he is still the best number 10 in the world being played as a two-way number 8. His talents are being sacrificed for his leadership. Which in return is destroying his productivity and turning him into a liability when out of possession.
On at least eight occasions this season, United have conceded from a Bruno giveaway or him not tracking his man. His penchant for making risky passes exposes the defense from how deep Amorim is telling him to play. And, his lack of positional acuity to play both sides of the game often leads to gaps which our opponents are quick to exploit.
As much as Casemiro has been excellent for United this season, he can’t cover all the ground that Bruno leaves vulnerable. What’s more, Casemiro rarely plays past 60 minutes, and has on average missed more than a third of United’s games. Thats 18-20 matches per season.
From a mathematical perspective, Casemiro misses an average of 2600 minutes per season. If United continue to allow a goal every 29 minutes without him, that adds up to a lot of potential goals. Not that Untied are likely to concede another 90+ goals this season, but the math does put into perspective how venerable this squad is without him.
Casemiro and Bruno might be the most talented and experienced players at Amorim’s disposal, but that counts for nothing if their partnership creates more problems than it solves.
Solutions
Ugarte looks well out of his depth in the EPL. United are clearly too reliant on Casemiro. Kobbie Mainoo is much better suited to play number 8 than Bruno. But, United are so overly dependent on Bruno’s courage and creativity that Mainoo, our best youth prospect since Rashford, can’t get a game. Furthermore, like Shaw, Bruno has become one of the squads biggest problems.
Our attack has carried this team through the first part of this season. However, our lack of depth and options at the front end of the pitch is starting to reveal problems of its own. Not to mention, our defense is an abstract collage of underperforming defenders playing for the wrong manager. Meanwhile, the club simply don’t have the money to solve all of the squads problems in a time frame that won’t get Amorim and Ratcliffe fired.
SO, what then can be done?
Manchester United Recruitment Strategy Revealed
If rumors are to be believed, Manchester United will primarily focus on midfielders in January. After spending close to $170 million on Dorgu, Yoro, De Ligt, Leon, Heaven and Mazraoui in the last two years, and about the same on Sesko, Mbeumo and Cunha in the summer, United will only bid for an attacker or defender if a ‘can’t pass up’ opportunity arises.
United as well as several other clubs are monitoring Robert Lewandowski and Marc Guehi’s contract negotiations as well as Harry Kane’s January release clause. But all indications are that their parent clubs plan to hold onto them until the summer. The Red Devils have also been linked to Elliot Anderson, Carlos Baleba, Adam Wharton, Angelo Stiller, Conor Gallagher and Joao Gomes as midfield reinforcements.
However, United are in too deep with PSR. And, most teams are aware of Amorim’s need for new recruits. Meaning most of the players the club is interested in are overvalued and cost prohibitive. There is also the matter of Kobbie Mainoo. The arrival of midfield reserves is likely to spell the end of his time at Old Trafford.
Part of me believes that the pragmatic decision for the Red Devils is to focus on wingbacks and a striker for now. At least until the summer when we will have a better idea of Licha’s long term fitness prospects, Bruno and Casemiro’s long term futures are sorted, and Mainoo has a better picture of his long term roll under Ruben Amorim.
Solving the Problem from Within
There is some belief that Manchester United can solve some of their problems from within. Specifically. Mason Mount, Kobbie Mainoo and Lisandro Martinez are being tipped to play a much bigger role in the second half of the season.
Mainoo has been seen recently training alongside Bruno as a number 6. A position he took up against Everton. Meanwhile, his stellar abilities as a number 8 and 10 are already well documented. Meaning that he may be a reasonable option to help salve United’s midfield frailties.
Mount has struggled to stay injury free since his days at Chelsea. However, he is back to full fitness and is being considered as a viable solution to United losing Mbeumo to AFCON and Cunha’s own struggles with fitness. His five goal involvements in five starts this season are a testament to how important he can be for this team.
Martinez, on the other hand, is being tipped to make a more immediate impact. He can play as a defensive midfielder to deputise for Casemiro. A roll he was highly effective at during his time at Ajax. And, he is seen as a huge upgrade over Luke Shaw. His addition to the back three is seen as a solution to United’s vulnerability on the left side and their inability to play out of the back.
His addition also has the knock on effect of allowing Shaw, Dorgu and Amad to play in their preferred positions. And, it does everyone a favor relegating Dalot to the bench. It’s a win win scenario for everyone. Except Dalot of course.
Antoine Semenyo Throws a Wrench into United’s January Recruitment Plans
The Manchester United front office needs to be opportunistic in the transfer market. This is why they went after three attacking players last summer. They wanted to bring in midfield reinforcements, a readymade keeper and potentially a wingback. But, every player they inquired about cost so much they would have had problems with PSR. Hence, chasing three attackers in the summer.
The same may be about to happen in the January window with Antoine Semenyo. Most of the Premier Leagues top clubs were chasing Semenyo in the summer. It has even been reported that Amorim spoke with the player directly before deciding to go after Cunha and Mbeumo.
Unfortunately, Semenyo signed a contract extension with Bournemouth in July effectively ending United’s interest in him. However, in a new twist recent reports state that Semenyo has a January buyout clause of around $65 million. A price tag that is turning the heads of Europe’s elite teams.
After the loss to Everton, Amorim’s lack of quality in depth in attack was laid to bare. If there are no reasonable deals to be had for a midfielder or defender, it would wouldn’t surprise me to see reports of United entering the race to sign the young Ghanaian.
Manchester United are Planning for the Long Term
The hope for now, is that Manchester United can use the rest of this season to continue reducing their PSR restrictions. Which would give them more spending power to recruit the right players in the summer rather than over paying or grasping at serendipitous opportunities in January.
Ratcliffe plans to do this initially through a massive reduction in wages. The hope is that they permanently offload Zirkzee, Rashford, Sancho, Onana, Ugarte, Bruno and Casemiro in the summer. As well as reducing Maguires wages on a new deal. Collectively saving close to $1.5 million per week. It also appears that Ratcliffe and the Glazers are expecting a cash influx from either a new investor or owner. Which would pay down the clubs debt and provide funds for new players.
Additionally, reports coming out of Old Trafford are that United do not plan to do a lot of business in the January window. In fact the club has adamantly denied that they are pursuing any midseason targets. Despite persistent rumors to the contrary.
Regardless of the wide array of reports, I have no doubt that the club will be looking to add to the squad in January. Amorim is desperate for bodies and Ratcliffe is desperate for Champions League. But, for the first time in a decade, the front office appears to be taking a pragmatic approach in the transfer market. An MO that has been at the crux of Ratcliffe’s success as a businessman.
The Manchester United Front Office is Unpredictable at Best
While there is little secret about Manchester United’s transfer needs, there is an element of unpredictability to what the front office can pull off. The contrast in the rumors coming from Old Trafford versus the tabloid media is wide enough to sail the America’s Cup through.
History would suggest that the front office will try to bring in at least one significant recruit this winter. Meanwhile as previously stated, consensus in the media is that United are looking to strengthen in midfield above all other positions. Potentially indicating that Casemiro and Bruno are not in the clubs long term plans.
However, the Red Devil’s financial fair play worries are the dominating factor in this argument. These concerns combined with several tier one reports that United are tracking Gehi, Semenyo and a handful of different strikers and midfielders makes it impossible to postulate what will happen in January or for the rest of the season.
If Amorim is as smart as people say, he is likely planning for a meager January window. And, he is hopefully planning to utilize Martinez, Mount and Mainoo in a greater capacity as we lose players to the African Cup of Nations and the inevitability of injuries and suspensions. When all is said and done, this winter is like to be very telling about where the club are headed for the long term.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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