Same Story Different Day for Manchester United
INEOS have just passed their first 18 months in charge of Manchester United. Meanwhile, Ruben Amorim is coming up on his one year anniversary in the Old Trafford hot seat. Both have now been at the club long enough to see a clear picture of the direction they intend to take the it.
Popular opinion about the success of the INEOS/Amorim partnership vacillates widely depending United’s most recent result. However, only two months into the 25/26 season and the vultures are once again circling.
There is still belief amongst the Old Trafford front office and the die hard faithful that the club have made some progress under INEOS and Ruben Amorim. Though, concerns remain that the Red Devils are still miles off the pace set by our rivals.
Undeniably, Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his team have made several highly criticized decisions. They also appear in over their heads with the amount of debt and PSR restrictions the Glazers saddled them with. Meanwhile, Ratcliffe’s transfer strategy is still leaving massive holes in the squad and handicapping the manager.
However, there is evidence that the club have improved their culture since Ruben Amorim and Ratcliffe’s arrivals. Statistics suggest that United are a much better team than results would indicate. And, there is tangible proof that Ratcliffe has a plan for United other than milking it for profit. Which is more than anyone could say under Glazer control.
Small Gains
Despite recent postings of more than $660 million in profits last season, the club have almost half a billion in outstanding transfer payables. They have no revenue from European competition. And, there are several sponsors dropping United as of this season. Including the lucrative AON sponsorship of Carrington.
Worst of all, the club still owe more than billion dollars in debt.
This means that Ratcliffe and his front office have had to focus on small gains to allow United to stay competitive in the transfer market. Those gains include removing more than $80 million in annual excess wages from the books.
United have made clever loan deals for players like Sancho and Rashford where all or most of their wages are covered. They have also gotten rid of players like Eriksen, Lindelof, Garnacho and Antony.
Furthermore, the addition of sell on clauses for departing players, like Anthony Elanga has brought in additional revenue.
Last but not least, in spite of how unpopular the decision was, United fired 450 workers and cut funding to several departments, saving close to $45 million.
When people ask, how were United able to spend $250 million in the transfer market? It wasn’t the club’s record revenue, it was small gains. Including player sales, sell on clauses, money saved on wages, layoffs and cutbacks, United saved almost $165 million.
Manchester United Implement New Transfer Strategy
More good news for Red Devils fans, Manchester United have also gone so far as to implement a new transfer strategy. Ratcliffe and Omar Berrada chose to go with the approach Real Madrid has found successful in recent seasons. Buy a core group of young next gen players. Give them a young, relatable manager. Then watch the chips fall as they may.
The Not So Bad News
The problem with this approach is, too many players need replacing to get this team playing the Amorim way. Or at least in a timeframe that won’t hang Amorim and Ratcliffe out to dry.
I believe this is why United aren’t technically buying Amorim style players. De Ligt and Mazraoui did come before Amorim. However, both are mainstays in the squad. Mazraoui is even part of Amorim’s “leadership group”. But, both are more suited for a back four. As is Dorgu, who has only played as a full back before coming to Old Trafford.
Ayden Heaven and Diego Leon were bought as youth prospects without Amorims consultation.
Cunha likes to play as a second striker in a front two or as a left sided forward or no.10 in a 4-3-2-1. Neither of which are positions that exist in Amorim’s 3-4-3. Mbeumo primarily played as a right winger at Brentford, again a position not part of Amorim’s system.
Meanwhile, Sesko primarily played as a lone striker in a 4-3-3 where he was supported by two wide forwards, a no.10, a no.8 and two full backs. Amorims system only supports the striker with two no.10’s and one fullback with the no.8 providing back up. Simply put, Amorims system requires a lot of work from the front three, which Sesko is still acclimating to.
Nothing about INEOS’s signings suggest they are catering their transfer dealings to Ruben Amorim. Rio Ferdinand pointed out as much in his recent podcast. His asserts that INEOS has recruited players primarily suited for a 4-3-3, 4-3-2-1 or a 4-2-3-1. What’s more, it seems as if most of us fans and the pundits agree with him.
The Good News
Fortunately, there are a lot of benefits to United’s new transfer strategy.
For nearly a decade United fans have rightfully criticized that players coming into Old Trafford lack the mentality to succeed at the club. This has led to a laundry list of failed superstar players. All whom United had to sell for far less than what they were purchased for, or in some cases let go for free.
Another complaint was that United purchase players that are too specific to the manager, often selected by him personally. This has led to a veritable cornucopia of players that never seems to complement the next manager.
However, under INEOS I would argue that Manchester United have made purchases that have greater potential to transcend the coaching staff. They have also had a much better mentality and work ethic than Glazer era signings.
I would also argue that Ratcliffe, Berrada and Wilcox all see what Dan Ashworth probably predicted. Amorim’s lack of tactical flexibility is a dangerous gamble given the present state of the club and the players available to him. Thus, it should be no surprise that the clubs transfer dealings take into consideration the risk Amorim’s rigidity comes with.
It is now more than ever extremely vital that Ratcliffe and Co. build a squad that is adaptable.
A justifiably pragmatic approach.
Final Transfer Notes
What’s more, in INEOS’s first two transfer windows, prevailing opinion was that our depth and quality across the back line was dismal. What did INEOS do?…They bought Ugarte, De Ligt, Mazraoui, Heaven, Amass, Dorgu, Yoro and Leon.
Last season, United lacked goals. What did INEOS do?… They bought two premier league proven goal scorers in Cunha and Mbeumo, a next gen number 9 in Sesko and a youth prodigy in Chido Obi. The squad is now crying out for a new midfield duo, a wing back and potentially a keeper. Guess what positions United are already rumored to be chasing in January?…
United have also been heavily criticized for carrying deadweight and bad attitude players for too long. How did Ratcliffe respond?… Erikson, Lindelof, Evans, Greenwood, Wan-Bissaka, Martial, van de Beek, Garnacho, Rashford, Sancho, Antony, Onana. All are gone. The only departure under INEOS that most of us disagree with was Scott McTominay.
PSR and Ratcliffe’s limited wealth mean that Untied cannot fix everything at once. Thankfully, there appears to be a progressive plan of strategically seeing-a-need-filling-a-need, balancing the books, and spending within the clubs means.
Though, in light of the teams performances in the last 8 months, the immediate reaction from fans and pundits seems to be a mix of dwindling hope and pure frustration. For good reason.
Manchester United in Numbers
Manchester United finished 15th last season. They lost more matches (18), tallied less points (42), accumulated their lowest goal difference (-10), and scored fewer goals (44) than any other season in Premier League history.
Manchester United have also, been incapable of winning two matches in a row since the arrival of Ruben Amorim. This season, so far, United sit 10th, have been relegated from the EFL and they currently rank in the bottom half of teams for almost all defensive actions, goal difference and set pieces.
However, in United’s case, the numbers tell a story of contrast and bad luck.
Currently, in the Premier League, the Red Devils rank 1st for total shots, xG, long ball accuracy, and hitting the woodwork. They rank 2nd for successful crosses into the box, successful tackles and missed penalties. They rank 3rd for touches in the opposition box and penalties awarded. And they rank 4th for shot accuracy, big chances created, possession won in the final third and missed big chances.
There is also something to be said for Manchester United’s opening run of games. According to Opta the Red Devils had the hardest opening six fixtures of any other Premier league team. Opta also claims that the Red Devils have the hardest opening 10 matches of any other EPL team.
Make of all of this what you will. The argument is there for both sides.
Manchester United Attempting to Rebuild Club Culture
Recently, in his pressers Ruben Amorim has been referencing several off field changes around the club. The hope is these changes will help to facilitate a better club culture.
First, Amorim has reintegrated mandatory team meals, set rules for players’ use of social media, and implemented a strict code of conduct. Furthermore, with Bruno Fernandes as the head, United now have a six man leadership team. The list includes Bruno, Maguire, Shaw, Mazraoui, Dalot, Licha and Tom Heaton. Players are then divided into groups where each group answers to one of the leaders.
The idea is to hold players accountable to the team rather than just the manager. It also allows Amorim to delegate certain decisions and disciplinary proceedings to the players’ groups.
The club have also been proactive in moving on players with the wrong mentality. Meanwhile, training and fitness standards have been dramatically increased.
Ratcliffe has even added a plethora of amenities to Carrington. The idea is that more amenities will encourage the players to stay longer and spend more time together. Those amenities include onsite mental health experts, a recreation area, nutritionists, an award winning culinary team, and a comprehensive medical staff.
This might all be a dollar short and a day late. Then again, do we all need reminding of Cristiano Ronaldo’s “farewell” interview?
Amorim’s Tactics
Manchester United’s performance metrics would suggest that Ruben Amorim’s approach is taking effect, slowly. When United play well, there are clear patterns of play, exciting attacking flow and a robust desire to win the ball back. The stats I previously discussed are all proof of this.
The off field changes also appear to have achieved the goal of building fitter players and better group cohesion. Again, when United play well, they look as if they want to fight for each other and the manager. The Arsenal, Chelsea and Sunderland matches are proof of that.
However, this team was not built for Amorim’s tactics. The evidence is in the constant mistakes our back line makes to give away cheap goals. It is also evident in the teams poor set piece defending and their inability to keep the ball in the middle of the park.
What’s more, if the system was working, why have Mount, Manioo and Diallo all had to play as wingbacks this season? Why is Bruno always played out of position? And why can’t a $250 million strike force backed by the most chance creating and creative player in England score goals consistently?
The off-field changes being made, the positive stats and player unity is all good. But it is all for nothing if Manchester United cant break out of the top ten. Or worse, they look like they will be fighting a relegation battle before the holidays even arrive.
Sadly, I do not believe Ruben Amorim’s tactics are working. At least, not as fast as he needs them too and not with the group of players INEOS is giving him.
Ratcliffe’s Bad Business at Manchester United
And now we arrive at the painful truth… Sir Jim Ratcliffe has made some genuinely terrible decisions since arriving at Old Trafford.
He’s over dictating to the front office, ignoring good advice from seasoned professionals and he is taking unnecessary risks in an attempt to accelerate United’s journey back to the top. Meanwhile, his jump first ask questions later approach and willingness to hedge everything on qualifying for Europe is precarious at best.
Ratcliffe also hired Dan Ashworth and decided to stick with Erik ten Hag. Both were considered to be smart decisions at the time. Both failed and cost the club more than $40 million in payouts. Not to mention the $10 million wasted paying Newcastle to get Ashworth.
Ratcliffe then decided to make numerous staff and budget cuts. More than 450 employees have been laid off. Donations to charitable causes have been cut. Plans for a new training ground were scrapped in favor of refurbishing Carrington. All the while Untied have often been stuck chasing their second, third or fourth choice transfer targets.
It is easy enough to see what Ratcliffe is trying to do. Many have claimed that his head has been in the right place, he has just been unlucky with the hand delt to him by the Glazers. But, when most of his decisions have been heavily criticized or complete failures, it is hard to see the justification.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Motives Revealed.
The tipping point for me personally is Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s true motives. Motives that Alex and John have discussed at length on the ARD pod. And motives I have written about on this blog.
When Ratcliffe bought into Manchester United he did it with the goal of eventually buying out the Glazers completely. Per his agreement with the Glazers, should the club reach specified performance standards, both on and off the pitch, in INEOS’s first 3-5 years, Ratcliffe would be given his opportunity.
However, should the club fall below specific standards then Ratcliffe will be forced to relinquish operational control of the club. Additionally, the Glazers would have the chance to push him out entirely.
Yet another skeleton in Ratcliffe’s closet is that INEOS is the largest environmental polluter in all of Europe. And Ratcliffe saw an opportunity to use United to turn heads away from those violations. His plan would have probably worked if United were performing, alas they are not.
The bottom line is that Ratcliffe is feeling the pressure. His motivation is not Manchester United’s history, winning trophies, or the fans, like he has claimed. Rather, his drive is based on a multi-billion dollar gamble made in an effort to sports wash his business dealings.
Simply put, the deeper you look into Ratcliffe, the less evidence there is of his benevolence to United’s cause.
The Amorim and Ratcliffe Experiments Have Failed
I could argue all day that keeping Erik ten Hag was a good decision at the time. It provided stability when new owners and a new front office where arriving. But, it backfired, ten Hag got sacked and it cost more than $30 million in payouts to his staff.
I could argue that firing Dan Ashworth was necessary for a cohesive front office. Yet, it seems all the failures Ashworth warned Ratcliffe of are coming to fruition. And Untied wasted close to $15 million in the process.
I could argue that hiring Ruben Amorim was a masterstroke with the potential to be a game changing decision for United. Yet here we are wallowing in the shadows of teams like Brentford, Fulham and Grimsby.
I could argue that trimming the budget was necessary. However, is Ratcliffe’s penny pinching working when United’s debt has increased from around $900 million under the Glazers to more than $1.2 billion under INEOS?
I could argue the squad’s stats suggest they are making headway under Amorim. But, the all the positive stats in the world mean nothing when you can’t put points on the board.
I could argue spending United’s budget this summer on three attackers was necessary and dictated by the market. But, without a spine of players to control games and feed those three, we are left with the highest xG in the league while sitting in 10th place with a negative goal difference.
Irrespective of what glimmers of positivity remain, almost every big decision Ratcliffe and Amorim have made since their arrival has either done too little or outright made things worse. The experiment has failed.
Amorim Was Set Up to Fail
The source of all of these issues is INEOS.
Fact: Amorim was initially reluctant to come to Old Trafford. But, Ratcliffe and Berrada went over Dan Ashworths head and offered Amorim a lot of false promises to come anyway.
Fact: Ashworth was sacked because of his disapproval of Amorim and his inability to be a yes man to Ratcliffe. Combined, these two facts are evidence enough that everyone involved knew from the start that Amorim was always going to be a huge gamble.
Even the fans knew from the beginning that it was going to take a billion dollars to transform this squad. We also all knew of United’s PSR issues. And, we knew that Ratcliffe didn’t have the money to invest in the squad to the level Amorim needed as quickly as he was going to need it.
Even after how dismal last season was, the United front office then made yet another terrible decision by ignoring Amorim in the summer window. It was clear that Amorim wanted to bring in a Premier League proven striker, an elite number 6, an elite wing back, and a ready made keeper. He got none of those things.
Simply put Amorim was set up to fail. He knows it, we all know it. So it is no surprise when the latest media reports about Amorim are all suggesting he is ready to quit Old Trafford.
Will the Real Manchester United Please Stand Up?!
Those of you who have made it this far might now find yourself thinking the same thing I am. Despite the thin threads of hope we cling to, our club’s history demands a much higher standard from our Red Devils. At all levels of the club.
Manchester United have fallen behind the curve based on almost every available metric. Meanwhile, Ratcliffe’s true colors are beginning to shine while the club continues to pile on debt.
Adding fuel to the fire, the squad continues to underperform. Our manager turns out to be another stubborn bastard, like most of his recent predecessors. And, too often as a group, the players still look as mentally fragile as my grandmothers crystal stemware.
Of course we can’t forget that the Glazers still own the majority of the club. Should Ratcliffe fail in his attempts to buy them out it falls right back into Glazer control.
I’m not sure which scenario is worse. Being used by Ratcliffe in his attempts to clean his name. Or going back to the Glazers use of United as their own personal coin purse. Either way, it seems that Manchester United will continue to be destined for new lows as long as greedy billionaires continue to bend our club to their will.
What Next for Ratcliffe, Amorim and Manchester United?
Barring a miracle or the manager handing in his resignation, I am convinced that Ruben Amorim will get sacked. Several tier one sources are already reporting that Sir Jim Ratcliffe has held talks with Gareth Southgate, the man originally recommended by Ashworth, about replacing Amorim.
Rumors are that United are buying their time because Amorim’s buyout clause drops after the October international break. Meanwhile, in his pressers, Amorim has vacillated between threatening his resignation and all but daring INEOS to sack him sooner. Regardless, it appears that he is on borrowed time.
Ratcliffe, on the other hand, can still change his fate. Nefarious motives aside, the metrics he is required to meet can still be reached in the timeframe INEOS has to work with. Unfortunately, his history and motives do little to give us faith.
Personally, I think Ratcliffe will ultimately fail and be bought out. However, it is clear that the Glazers are not interested in resuming operational management of the club. Thus it is likely that they will put it up for sale again, probably to a Saudi or Qatari sovereign fund. We all remember how fun the first attempt to sell the club was…
Irrespective of individual perspectives, the first act of the INEOS saga appears to be coming to a close. Hopefully, act two is where the show starts to really take off. Though I suspect it will be without Ruben Amorim at the helm.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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