Manchester United to Overhaul Squad in Summer Transfer Window
Rumors around Manchester United indicate that their summer transfer plans have already begun to escalate with less than two months left in the season. If reports are to be believed the Red Devils are planning a total overhaul of the squad during the summer break. Per the manager’s request.
Ruben Amorim has apparently already decided which players in the current squad he wants to hold onto. Meanwhile, Amorim has also, according to reports, held multiple meetings with Sir Jim Ratcliffe, Omar Berrada and Jason Wilcox regarding both the specific players he wants the club to buy, and the profiles of the types of players he is looking for should other recruitment opportunities arise.
The road block potentially stalling those plans are Manchester United’s finances. The club is frighteningly low on funds and is walking a fine line with financial fair play rules. If United do not continue to trim their operating budget, find new sources of revenue, and offload a number of players, there will be no squad rebuild.
The club will likely need several more transfer windows to be able to completely transform this team. However, if rumors are to be believed, Manchester United are planning for significant player turnover this summer.
Manchester United Transfer Plans
The truth is, there is no way to determine Manchester United’s transfer capabilities this summer. The club’s ability to get business done will be largely predicated on how much profit they can make from player sales and whether or not they qualify for European football next season.
However, qualification through the league seems unlikely. United sit 13th in the premier league. OPTA and the majority of betting outlets give Manchester United a 0% chance of making top four and a 5% chance of making top eight.
Their best inroad to making European competition next campaign is to win the Europa League. The winner of this cup tournament is automatically invited to play in the Champions League the following season. However, for the last 18 months United have been dismal at their worst and hard to predict at their best.
Assuming the worst case scenario, that United fail to qualify for Europe next season, the only way to recruit the players Ruben Amorim wants is to sell several of the club’s most prized assets. It also means trying to sell some of United’s most overpaid and underperforming players for pennies on the dollar to clear up space in the wage bill.
Outgoing Transfers
The last two transfer windows have proven one thing in particular about the current strategies of Ratcliffe, Berrada and Wilcox. That is, stabilizing the club’s finances is their main drive.
In terms of transfers, that translates into a willingness to sell our best and most beloved players. Especially if it means that shifting even one of those assets can either facilitate multiple player purchases, or bring the club a step further away from being in breach of financial fair play laws.
As an example, selling Scott McTominay for $30million, theoretically facilitated amortized deals for Dorgu and Mazraoui. Meanwhile McTominay is also well on his way to fulfilling the criteria for the performance based addons for the deal United and Napoli made for his transfer. That gives United a $12 million dollar windfall.
There are also rumors that McTominay was demanding a salary bump to $150k per week. But the combined salaries of Dorgu and Mazraoui are only $120k. As much as we all loved McTominay, you don’t need to be a mathematician to see how a deal like his can make a huge impact on rebuilding this squad and chipping away at United’s money problems. It’s good business, bad PR.
Assuming United are preparing to shift more players this summer, the question is, who has Ruben Amorim decided to send to the chopping block?
Retiring and Out-of-Contract Players
First and foremost, Manchester United will bid a fond farewell to Tom Heaton and Jonny Evans. Two veteran servants to the club who will be retiring at the end of the season.
Additionally, while not confirmed by the club, sources close to the situation claim that Christian Eriksen and Victor Lindelof, who’s contracts both expire at the end of June will be released as free agents.
Most Believable Transfer Rumors
Rumors also indicate that Luke Shaw’s injury record has deemed him surplus to requirements by Amorim. According to several outlets, Amorim has done nothing but publically back Shaw and express his desire to give the United veteran a fair shot at earning his place. However, behind closed doors he has reportedly expressed concern over his fitness and injury history.
Those rumors go further to suggest that Amorim has no intention on wasting his time with Shaw and has asked Berrada and Wilcox to find him a new home. Shaw has been at United for more than eleven years and in that time he has never registered more than 20 appearances in a single season.
I love Shaw, and on his day he is elite. I also think he would fit perfectly in Amorim’s system. But, given United’s injury history in recent seasons, we need players that are more consistently available.
Meanwhile, Dalot, Malacia, Casemiro, Hojlund and Zirkzee have all been high on several fan and pundit led lists of players that simply are not good enough for this team.
Some have further suggested that Harry Maguire and Mason Mount should also be shifted despite both showing promise under Ruben Amorim. Maguire is the wrong side of 30, and has lost a step or two. Meanwhile, at United, he has never really found the eye for goal he had at his previous clubs. Whereas, Mount, like Shaw, simply can’t stay off the treatment table.
Manchester United’s Rogue Superstars
After weeks of jostling over contract minutia between Manchester United and Chelsea regarding Jadon Sancho, sources inside the club have insisted that regardless of Chelsea’s decision to keep or return Sancho, he will not continue as a United player.
Antony and Marcus Rashford are also in the shop window. However, their situations are hard to predict. Both have taken some advantage of their loans. Antony has 4 goals, 4 assists and 12 goal involvements in 12 matches for Real Betis. Where as Rashford has 3 goals, 4 assists and 10 goal involvements in 12 matches.
However, United purchased Antony for $85 million with at $200k per week contract. Even if he scores in every match for the rest of the season, United would be lucky to sell him $30 million and he would have to be willing to take a huge pay cut.
Meanwhile, Rashford, as a homegrown player would represent pure profit in the eyes of FFP. However, his powers have waned so much over the years his option to buy clause at Aston Villa says they can have him for a mere $40 million. Though, it seems unlikely they will exercise that unless Rashford too takes a huge pay cut from his $350k per week salary.
Clearly there is potential with both players. And clearly neither of them represents enough pure profit to make a dent in United’s financial struggles. Thus questions remain surrounding their reintegration into the squad.
Alejandro Garnacho to Leave Manchester United.
The worst rumor of all may be that Alejandro Garnacho will be sold. He is considered a homegrown player and has a market value of between $60-$70 million. All of which would represent profit. His sale alone could facilitate the purchase of 2-4 other players depending on how United amortise those deals.
This season has also shown that he is struggling under the pressure of being a United player. It is fair to say that like Rashy, Garnacho has probably had too much pressure placed on him at too young an age. That pressure has shown this season with how much his productivity has dropped.
However, he has also struggled to adapt to Amorim’s United. Those struggles, combined with his disciplinary record have encouraged the manager and front office to strike while the iron is hot.
As sad as it would be to see Garnacho go, they may not be wrong.
Paul Scholes has also had his say on the subject. In a SkySports interview he intimated that he had inside knowledge that the club have already begun to receive offers worth entertaining for the young Argentinian.
The Kobbie Mainoo Dilemma
Like Alejandro Garnacho, reports are suggesting that Kobbie Mainoo will be another sacrificial lamb to help rebuild Amorim’s squad.
Despite being a star performer Under Erik ten Hag, Mainoo has fallen out of favor with Amorim. The United manager has, according to reports, voiced his concerns with United’s hierarchy who jumped at the opportunity to sell another high profile homegrown player.
While those concerns remain ambiguous, they appear to be about how his focus, fitness and mentality wanes as the game goes on. He rarely lasts more than 60 minutes, and if a game is going south, so does his performance.
Adding fuel to these rumors is the same clip from Paul Scholes where he claims to have insider knowledge about Garnacho’s sale. In that same interview he went further to say that the club are also looking to sell Mainoo.
Personally I can’t see what Mainoo has done to deserve such judgement. But, like Garnacho he is worth between $50-$70 million. And like Garnacho, this represents not only significant relief to United’s FFP woes but also facilitates 2-4 new signings.
Manchester United Players Likely to Stay
United have set themselves up to fail in the last decade. By ignoring academy development, overpaying for players and offering bloated contracts, United have ensured that they cannot make any real profit selling the bulk of their current squad.
It is also probably safe to assume that Berrada and Wilcox are smart enough to know that it’s highly unlikely that United will be able to bring in more than 3-5 players this summer. That means at least 75% of the current squad will have to remain at United, at least until the next window opens.
So, the question begs, who will stay at United, whether by merit or necessity?
The Untouchables
There are several players at Manchester United that are untouchable. Barring an astronomical offer or a player handing in a transfer request, these players will almost certainly remain at United. Amorim has even come out in the media to clarify as much.
Fernandes, Diallo, Martinez, and Yoro have all been mentioned by Amorim as players he intends to keep. He has even called out Mason Mount as a very important player for this club. Make of that what you will.
There is also a list of players that I see highly likely to stay. Ugarte, De Ligt, Mazraoui, and Dorgu are all doing well under Amorim and are all so new to United it is hard to see them being sold.
The Likely Ones to Stay at Manchester United
There is a good chance that Hojlund and Zirkzee will both still stay. Hojlund’s stock is so low we couldn’t sell him for anything close to the $80 million United paid for him. But, at his age he also has time to recover and develop under a more experienced striker.
Meanwhile, Zirkzee has been playing better than most United players recently and seems to be in Amorim’s favor. If he continues this upward trend for the rest of the season the manager is likely to see him as a useful body.
I also think that the club are unlikely to sell Maguire and Casemiro. Case has stated his desire to stay at United repeatedly. He also has a $300k per week contract until 2026. It is unlikely anyone will want to pay those kinds of wages for a 33 year old with 18 months left on his contract. The player holds all the leverage, and seems likely to pull a Paul Pogba and run down his contract to leave on a free transfer.
Where as Maguire deserves more credit. He has been one of United’s most consistent defenders under Amorim. Like with England, he looks more comfortable in a back three. I think he deserves to stay on pure merit alone.
There are also good odds that Diogo Dalot stays. He has played more matches this season than any other United player. He rarely gets injured or carded. While lacking in end product, he plays end to end football and can strike the odd goal. And he can play on the left or right.
His flaws are mainly his passing and decision making are shite. However, if United can bring in another wingback, Dalot would serve as a good backup.
Manchester United has a Goalkeeper Dilemma
Manchester United seem to have a bit of a goalkeeper crisis on their hands. Tom Heaton is retiring. He will like be replaced by United U21 keeper Dermot Mee, who has trained regularly with the first team and has been the regular U21 and U23 keeper.
Altay Bayindir appears to be a great personality around the dressing room. He has also made some spectacular saves for the Red Devils. However, he isn’t great with his feet, nor is he smart with ball distribution. Simply put, he makes to many mistakes because he is playing in a system that doesn’t suit his traits. Bayandir is also the Turkish national goalkeeper coming into a World Cup year. He will want game time, and it is unlikely he will get it under Amorim.
The real problem is Andre Onana. As a person, as a teammate he seems to be a wonderful man. But, I haven’t talked to a single United fan that wouldn’t prefer De Gea still in net. To Onana’s credit, he is strong in the box, good with his feet, has the ability to make great reactionary and acrobatic saves.
However, his confidence is shot, he is prone to mistakes, his distribution is appalling at times, and his decision making all too often gets United into trouble. He might have the raw skill and athleticism to be a quality keeper. But he lacks the football IQ and decision making abilities to be a top Premier League keeper.
According to the rumors being widely reported, Amorim has put both Bayandir and Onana on the sell list.
Reality Check for Manchester United Fans
The Red Devils, at least for now, are a sell to buy club.
According to several rumors, United’s front office has determined that the combined sales of players like Shaw, Dalot, Malacia, Casemiro, Antony, Zirkzee and so on…would help with FFP by clearing the wage bill. However, it would make little to no dent in their transfer plans.
The reason being, all of those players are either under performing, perpetually injured, and/or were purchased on overly bloated amortized deals that United still owe money on. Meaning that the amount United could sell these players for would be so insignificant relative to the money owed and invested into them that they bear little to no profit.
Meanwhile, selling players like Garnacho, Mainoo, and Rashford, all home grown players, represent pure profit. As sad as it is to see them go, selling even one of them for a reasonable price gives Manchester United significantly more leverage and flexibility in the summer transfer market.
The goalkeeping issue presents a genuine problem. Is the plan for United to replace all three current keepers? Or, will Amorim and United’s front office be able to sweet talk Onana into playing back up. Either way, I don’t see Bayandir staying.
The bottom line, United are likely to retain the majority of the players we all want to see go. And they are just as likely to sell the players we all want to see stay. United fans need to prepare for a rough summer.
Glory, Glory Man United
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