Manchester United are Open for Business
The January transfer window is more than half over, with Manchester United focused on loans, both incoming and outgoing. Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s minority ownership and control of sporting operations have been confirmed, giving many fans renewed hope for this transfer window as well as the second half of the season. But so far that faith has yet to be repaid.
United are not typically very active during the winter window. Not unless injuries and congested fixtures take their tole like last season. As it were, the exact opposite is true at Old Trafford at the moment.
Potential matches have dropped away as United have been dumped out of Europe and the Carabao Cup. While, concurrently most of our injured players are either returning to fitness or have begun training again with the first team.
The contradiction between fan hope and reality has stirred speculation about what exactly fans could and should expect from Manchester United for the rest of this month.
Manchester United’s January Transfer Window Strategy
The return of so many senior starters and the subsequent decrease in playing time for fringe players has led to ten Hag sanctioning loan deals for several first team squad members.
Donny Van de Beek has been loaned to Eintracht Frankfurt. Jadon Sancho was loaned back to Borussia Dortmund. Sergio Reguilon has had his loan with United terminated. Hannibal is heading to Sevilla for the rest of the season. And, Alvaro Fernandez is being sent to Benfica. While loan deals are also being explored for Dan Gore and Facundo Pellistri.
For as many players as there are being loaned out, the tally of incoming players is zero. Erik ten Hag has reiterated on numerous occasions that this transfer window will not see many, if any new faces. His tag line has been that of every other United manager. ‘Unless a deal that cant be passed up comes available, there will be no incoming signings.’
It appears, that United’s strategy this winter transfer window is to offload deadwood and players that need match time for development. Anything more would be a bonus.
Rumors of Casemiro and Varane Exits
On the list of players potentially on the chopping block are both Casemiro and Rafael Varane. The consensus is that their time is quickly coming to an end at United. Both players are ridiculously overpaid and have issues with injuries. And both players appear to have clashed with the manager this season. While Varane’s contract is up in June, it remains to be seen if he would take the wage cut required to keep him beyond the summer..
Both players were originally bought with their leadership and experience in mind. Which were much needed traits in the dressing room when they were signed. Unfortunately, their presence has not been felt as much this season.
However, that does not necessarily mean that that they will depart in January. It would simply be too difficult and cost prohibitive to replace professionals of their caliber in the middle of the season. Even if that means that Varane leaves as a free agent at the end of his contract.
Fortunately, the information coming from the United camp has consistently been that the manager wants both players, at least until the summer. For now, the reports of a January exit for either player seems like pure clickbait, if not impractical and directly contradictory to the managers wishes.
Antony Martial Digs His Heels in Over Potential January Exit
Another face ear tipped for an impending departure is Antony Martial. Martial’s contract expires in the summer, and United are not taking the option to resign him. Unless he is willing to renegotiate his salary down to less than half his current wages he will see the exit door in either January or the summer.
United initially had every intention of selling him to the highest bidder in the current window. Interest had surfaced in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Premier League and with his former club Lyon. But, United only have Rasmus Hojlund as a striker. To lose Martial now, seems foolish without a guaranteed replacement coming in.
I hate saying it, but we need Antony Martial. If only for now.
He also appears to be digging his heels in over a transfer. The Frenchman has turned down all of his January suiters to, “fight for his spot at United.” I’m calling bullshit on that.
The truth is, it behooves Martial to stay at United until the summer. Especially now that he needs a hip operation. His kids will be in school. Uprooting them is never something a parent wants to do to their children in the middle of the term. Then there is also the matter of his wages. No one in their right mind will pay Martial what he is making at United. And Marital and his agent know it. If I am him, I am thinking that the smart move is to keep making as much money as possible while I still can.
For now it appears he will not leave during this transfer window.
Manchester United Will Struggle to Find Fresh Faces in January
At the moment the the list of potential new faces at Old Trafford is not a real page turner. Nor is it a very substantial list. The unfortunate reality of a mid season transfer window is there simply is not a lot of value in the market.
The players Manchester United want are not available. The players ten Hag is willing to settle for, that are available, will cost a premium. And the players available on loan are simply not good enough. Think Wout Weghorst and Odion Ighalo.
Another barrier to consider is financial fair play. Manchester United are teetering on the edge of violating FFP. Until players can be sold, and Ratcliffe can inject more funds into the club directly, United are not in a position to spend on new players. The club also needs to trim their wadge bill to help stay compliant with FFP in the near future.
Who Could Manchester United Sign this Transfer Window?
All of that being said, Manchester United are a team that is always linked to signings. This January window is no different.
A host of central defenders are rumored to be arriving at Old Trafford. Names include Matthijs de Ligt, Jean-Clair Todibo, Ronald Araujo, Edmond Tapsoba, and Antonio Silva. In attack United have been linked to Ivan Toney, Eric Choupo-Moting, Thomas Muller, Serhou Guirassy and Karim Benzema. This is by no means a comprehensive list, but from what I can tell it is the most realistic list for the January window.
In Defense…
Todibo looks like a deal that on the surface could be done easily. His club, Nice, is owned by new Manchester United minority owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe. The connection has led some to suggest he may move to United. However, he has started every match this season, and has only conceded 19 goals. Nice are also in contention for Champions League football. All of that meaning, that he is likely not available, despite rumors.
Silva and Tapsoba are both in the same boat as Todibo. Both are integral members of squads fighting for Champions League football. Tapsoba, in particular has little reason to join United. He currently plays for Bayer Leverkusen, who are the only team in Europe’s top leagues that remains Undefeated.
Arujo is another loose affiliation. United are monitoring him, and Barcelona need to sell players because of FFP. But after several clubs registered interest in him, Barcelona slapped a $70 million price tag on him.
Atalanta defender Giorgio Scalvini has also been linked with United. He is seen as a cheaper, easier prospect. However, Atalanta want $45 million for him. $45 million versus $70 million matters not when all United can afford right now is free.
In recent days, Matthijs de Light has expressed discontent at Bayern after diminished playing time under Thomas Tuchel. There is the connect with ten Hag from the their days at Ajax, that makes him an obvious link with United. However, a player wanting to leave a club does not make him available nor does it make him affordable. Most rumors claim this deal is more likely going to be done in the summer.
In Midfield…
Links of any midfielders to United should be taken with a grain of salt. Reports have suggested that Manchester United have registered interested in bringing in Adrian Rabiot, again. There were also some reports that the Red Devils had made contact with Benfica and Royal Antwerp over youngsters Joao Neves and Arthur Vermeeren. Rumors that have been denied by both clubs.
Again, I don’t necessarily doubt United’s long term interest in these players. What I do doubt the clubs resolve to bring these players in, in January.
My skepticism comes from the this simple fact. Eriksen, Casemiro and Amad have returned from injury and Mount is not too far behind them. Additionally, Kobbie Mainoo has immerged as a potential starter in Casemiro’s absence. United’s midfield is already overpopulated. That congestion and the fact that so many midfielders are being sent out on loan suggests that Untied have very little interest in signing one this window.
There is no doubt that United’s midfield needs refreshing. Amrabat, McTominay, Van de Beek, are all not good enough. Casemiro’s wage demands are too high and he can fall in and out of form. Bruno can be volatile at times and seem weighed down by the captaincy. While Eriksen is showing his age. I get the sense that there will be a lot of turnover in Manchester United’s midfield. Just not until the summer.
In Attack…
I feel confident that Toney to United will not happen. Brentford wants $120+ million for him and too many teams have registered interest in him. United simply do not have that kind of money right now. Perhaps if he is still available in the summer.
Choupo-Moting and Muller are interesting prospects. Both have seen significantly diminished playing time with the arrival of Harry Kane. And both have refused to quell rumors of their discontent. Bayern were reportedly interested in a few Untied players, so a possible swap deal has some potential. There is also talk of Bayern loaning one of them to us for the rest of the season.
For a moment SkySports was reporting that Erik ten Hag was interested in Bologna striker Joshua Zirkzee. But, the Italian side refuse to drop their asking price below the player’s $35 million release clause which United feel is too high for a player with only 7 goals this season. At the moment, this deal sits at a stalemate.
Guirassy is another name with some traction. He has scored 18 goals for Stuttgart so far this season and only has a $17 million release clause. He has recently turned down a new contract offer from Stuttgart signaling his desire to move on. However, he only just signed a permanent deal in Germany last summer and Stuttgart are not keen on letting him go so soon.
Karim Benzema…
The situation surrounding Karim Benzema is so ridiculous that he deserves his own section. Like many star players over the summer, Benzema was tempted by Saudi money. But like Jordan Henderson, Benzema is not happy with life in the Gulf.
It has been widely reported that he has declared his desire to leave Saudi Arabia after only half a season. And rumors only seem to be getting hotter since Henderson has just proven that there is a pathway out of the middle east. Al Littihad are reluctant to let him go after only six months with two and a half years still left on his contract.
However, if he has the same termination clause that Henderson had then he should be allowed to terminate his deal and become a free agent. There are also some media outlets suggesting that he could leave on loan with an option to buy, so Al Littihad can recoup some of his wages.
Rumors are he is being offered to United to link back up with old teammates Casemiro and Varane. The Ballon d’Or winner would certainly add goals to this United squad. His signing rings of Larsson, Owen, Ibrahimavic, Cavani or Cristiano Ronaldo 2.0. He could come in for a short time to plug a hole in the squad, then move on to sandier shores before retiring.
The most obvious hurdle to his signing is his wages. He would command a salary that would be commensurate to his two former teammates. Which are exactly the kind of contracts Ratcliffe has vowed to stop handing out. There is also the matter of Chelsea, Arsenal, Real, and a host of other teams being interested in the Frenchman, who are all in a stronger financial position than United.
What Can United Fans Expect this January Window?
While I remain pessimistic about any incoming transfers, I still hold out some hope that United can bolster the squad this winter, at least in attack.
I am the most optimistic that United could do a deal for Guirassy or Chuopo-Moting. Guirassy might just be cheap enough. While Chuopo-Moting or Muller could be available for loan or swap.
The one area that I hold out the most hope for new faces is in the front office. Since the confirmation of Sir Jim Ratcliffe arriving as a new Manchester United owner, rumors have been running riot as to what new faces he will bring in. The focus has been on a new chief executive, and a new director of football.
Jean-Claud Blanc appeared nailed on as new CEO. That is until United made the shock announcement on Friday that Manchester City’s Chief Football Operations Officer, Omar Berrada was announced as new United Chief Executive. Paul Mitchell, Dougie Freedman and Dan Ashworth have all been mentioned as candidates for Director of Football. And Sir David Brailsford is going to be a senior advisor to INEOS and Ratcliffe on all things Red Devils.
Right now my standards for Manchester United are so low that I am satisfied with this window on the appointment of Berrada alone. Untied could sign zero players in January, but if I see Omar Berrada and/or a new DOF sitting in the stands against Wolves on February 1st than I will have a smile on my face.
FFP Dictating United’s Transfer Window
As has been a theme throughout this article, financial fair play is Erik ten Hag’s biggest barrier to new signings. It doesn’t appear that Manchester United are in any hurry to sell players in this window. So, the likelihood of any new signings at Carrington is slim to none, unless a decent loan option appears.
Martial was supposed to leave, and still may, but every day that goes by is another day closer to letting him go on a free. He was the most likely player to be sold this window, therefore the most likely source of funds for purchases. Much to the lament of United fans his stubbornness and pending hip surgery make him unsellable. However, without his sale, I fail to see where United will make any money to buy.
Most of the information coming from United is that Varane and Casemiro will stay at least until the summer. There are even faint rumors of Varane negotiating a new contract on lower wages. Van de Beek could attract a decent fee, but he has been loaned out to Frankfurt. Sancho has been out of first team football long enough that he isn’t worth the price of the jersey his name is printed on. Lindelof just signed a new deal and AWB had his extra year activated. Maguire has an injury. Johnny Evans has been our most consistent and second best defender all season.
Who else is left that isn’t either one of ten Hag’s ‘boys’, or is too new, too young, or too un-droppable to sell in this transfer window? Diogo Dalot perhaps?…all I am saying is, SHOW ME THE MONEY!
Much Ado About Nothing
I do still believe that Ratcliffe is looking to get rid of a lot of players. Again, just not until the summer. And technically speaking our new owner cant inject any cash into the club yet because the Premier League wont be done ratifying the deal until February at the earliest, after the transfer deadline. Despite all parties agreeing to the deal he is not an owner yet.
FFP also has a lot of teeth this year with the Premier League’s new profit and sustainability laws. Everton and Nottingham forest have already been convicted of breaches. Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City are all currently under investigation. And we were told at the end of the last transfer window that Manchester United were close to being in violation themselves.
Ten Hag is desperate for goals. Thus I believe United will be working hard behind the scenes to find a solution. But, for now it appears Manchester United’s hands are tied in the market. I would be very surprised to see more than one or two loanees arriving this window.
Until the Ratcliffe deal is finalized there is little evidence to suggest much can or will happen at Old Trafford. I continue to hold out hope that the return of much missed players and Ratcliffe’s presence can spur United on until June. I also hold out hope for more new directors and executives arriving at Old Trafford before the summer. Then the rebuilding will begin.
For now, I have a hard time believing in any of the rumors from this transfer window.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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