Early January Transfer Talk

Another Transfer Window, Another Opportunity

The January transfer window is now firmly in sight. Meaning, it is time to reassess the needs of our squad and evaluate any available players that represent a fortuitous opportunity.

At the moment, reports of who Jason Wilcox and Ruben Amorim are planning to bring to Old Trafford is scatter gunned across the pitch. The only consensus amongst tier one sources is that United have set aside as much as $120 million to spend in the winter window.

Those same rumor mongers claim that United will focus on defensive and midfield reinforcement. Though leaks coming out of the club also assert that they remain open to any opportunistic recruits that may become available.

In a recent interview with Wilcox, he insisted that he, Omar Berada and Sir Jim Ratcliffe are focused on their long term plan. They are willing to be patient and shift targets based on availability and price tag. They are also willing to wait if it means recruiting the right player. Most of all, they refuse to be bent over a barrel over price.

All indications are that they will continue to ride this approach in January as long as it continues to produce results like Mbeumo, Cunha, Yoro, De Ligt and Sesko.

Outgoing Transfers

The list of players leaving Old Trafford in January is short. Kobbie Mainoo and Joshua Zirkzee are the only two being mentioned. Both are concerned about their game time under Amorim. And, both are trying to make their respective national team squads for the World Cup. Hence, why it is no surprise that they have been angling for moves in January.

However, the United front office has reiterated several times that they have no intention to further shortchange the squad in January. Offers have already been rebuffed for both players despite reports in Italy claiming that Napoli is close to a deal for Mainoo and AC Milan are chasing Zirkzee.

United’s stance is that the African Cup of Nations and already limited squad depth are reason enough to prevent any players from leaving.

However, should a replacement for either player become available in the winter window, reports claim United would be willing to listen to loan offers for Mainoo, and any competitive offers for Zirkzee. For now the expectation is that United will not allow any players to leave in January unless the fee is significant and a replacement is already lined up.

Incoming Transfers

According to Fabrizio Romano and and Andy Mitten, Manchester United are poised to make a “significant signing in midfield in 2026.” However, most of the names on United’s shortlist are likely to be cost prohibitive mid season. Mainly because the club still have FFP concerns to contend with and most teams don’t like to give up important players without a fight mid season.

This has led some journalists to suggest that United may wait until the summer to do big business.

The manager has further reinforced this theory in his pressers, recently reiterating that he and the United front office have no desire to bring in temporary recruits to fix problems in the short term. They only want players they see as having a long term future at the club.

However, at the beginning of the season the club were heavily criticized for bringing in an unproven striker, who is now injured. They were equally ridiculed for not acquiring midfield reinforcements, an elite wingback and a ready-made goalkeeper.

This is far from a finished squad. Amorim needs bodies if they are going to qualify for Europe next season. With minimal funds available, FFP breathing down United’s neck and typically limited availability in the winter window, Wilcox and Amorim will need to be clever with the business they do.

Does Manchester United NEED a New Goalkeeper?

That being said. Senne Lammens looks the real deal between the stakes. The Belgian big man has been commanding in the box and a breath of fresh air on set pieces. He is aggressive in organizing and communicating with his back line. And, he has many of the same shot stopping abilities of David de Gea.

Most importantly, in just a few games he has been able to restore confidence in fans and the defense.

My only criticisms are, his distribution could be better. His age and subsequent lack of experience are limiting factors. And, he has let in one or two goals that should have been stopped in my opinion. But, those are issues that can be improved with practice and mentorship.

For now, Lammens seems to be handling the pressure of being a United goalkeeper with grace and confidence. Meanwhile, the skills that can’t be taught like mentality, courage, leadership and confidence he has in abundance.

Verdict: Reassess in the summer.

Ruben Amorim is Desperate for Defensive Reinforcements

Licha and Mazraoui are coming back. Which will feel like new signings given how long they have been injured. Maguire, Yoro and De Ligt are having an excellent seasons so far. Shaw and Dalot retain Amorim’s backing despite shaky displays. While Dorgu has shown in short bursts how much potential he has.

Meaning, United have numbers in defense. Potentially allowing them to hold off reinforcing that area in the winter window.

However, after allowing in 20 goals already this season, United have the 5th worst defensive record in the league. As has been pointed out by Ruben Amorim in recent pressers. He has reiterated several times that United need to do better in front of goal.

I would also argue that after an injury riddled career, Luke Shaw isn’t the defender he once was. Licha is prone to long term injures. Maguire’s lack of pace is a huge liability in transition and on breakaways. Dorgu, Heaven, Yoro and Leon are all still young and as such prone to mistakes. Whereas, Dalot and Mazraoui, despite their willingness to fight for the badge, are not Amorim style wingbacks and thus also liabilities.

Verdict: Bring in a new wingback and/or centerback if a ready made option becomes available in January for a reasonable price.

Ruben Amorim’s Real Problem is in Midfield

When talking about Manchester United’s defensive issues, the most significant source of goals conceded is not actually our defense. Arguably, the problem lies with our two best and most experienced players.

Bruno opens a lot of holes as he wanders the pitch trying to create opportunities. Leaving our midfield like swiss cheese. He is also not the most reliable in defense. On several occasions this season United have conceded because Bruno was caught ball watching or was out of position. He simply lacks the dynamism and defensive focus to play both sides of the ball they way Amorim wants.

Meanwhile, despite Casemiro’s new found fitness, his age and experience has caught up with him. He can’t play more than 60 minutes. He’s not mobile enough to plug all the gaps that Bruno leaves open. Not to mention, he has developed a penchant for injuries and suspensions.

Their flawed partnership and generous salaries are enough to suggest that United will part ways with both this summer. However, Mainoo is still far from the finished product and trying to find his way under Amorim. While Ugarte is an untrusted asset. If these rumors are true, United would be left devoid of leadership, experience, goals, sheer talent and bodies in midfield.

Verdict: Recruit an elite number 6 and a Bruno understudy immediately.

The Red Devils Attack Finding it’s Mojo

For the last two months Amorim’s attack has looked solid. United are undefeated in their last five matches. They have the third best goal scoring record in the EPL. They have scored two or more goals in eight of their last ten matches. And, they have nine players on the scoresheet so far this season including all three of our new attackers.

However, initial assessments of Sesko after picking up an injury against Tottenham suggest that he will be out for months not weeks. Also with AFCON approaching Mbeumo, United’s leading goal scorer and Amad, United’s top assist maker are leaving the squad for up to four weeks. Between the two of them they have had a roll in more than half of United’s 20 goals.

Meaning United may be tempted to dip into the market for an attacker in January.

The problem is Manchester United spent most of their budget in the summer on the front three. That makes it hard for Wilcox and Amorim to justify another attacking player in January without reinforcing other positions first. Unfortunately, with United likely to be down three attackers over the busy festive period, the club may have no choice.

Verdict: If Sesko’s injury is serious, United have no choice but to shop for a striker in January.

The Rumors So Far

The players rumored to be on Manchester United’s radar are so far are the usual veritable cornucopia of names. Most of them are not more than opportunistic speculation based on players available rather than any founded reports. As such, almost any player that is a free agent, used to play for Amorim, needs a loan or is out of favor at their current club is linked to Old Trafford.

The following list is one that I put together based on what I believe to be the most interesting and founded opinions.

Carlos Baleba

Carlos Baleba is the first rumor that I think needs to be shut down now. The whole world knows that United were pursuing him in the summer. While current reports claim that United are still heavily interested in him.

However, even after an unconvincing start to the season, Brighton still want $100+ million for Baleba. United simply have too many areas of the pitch that need reinforcement to spend that much on one player in January.

Granted he is a stellar player and United will face more competition to sign him next summer. But, given United’s precarious FFP issues, I can’t be the only one that feels it is a tad irresponsible for the front office to blow their whole load on one player. United need volume as much as quality.

Even if United amortize the deal, Brighton are demanding a significant amount of the fee up front. Which is why the deal didn’t get done last summer.

Verdict: Baleba should wait at least until next summer. But knowing United’s track record, they could well stump for the defensive midfielder regardless of my concerns.

Elliot Anderson

In the summer Elliot Anderson was the backup option for United should a deal for Baleba not materialize. The problem is, United didn’t get Baleba. And, they made no subsequent attempt to sign Anderson.

This makes me think that the club are still prioritizing Baleba. On the other hand, Brighton have not lowered their asking price, possibly tempting United into moving for Anderson in January should a second attempt to sign Baleba fail.

The problem for United is that Nottingham Forest are already on their third manager this season and want to minimize their squad turinover until new manager Sean Dyche has had a chance to assess his players. Prompting Forest to slap a $70 million price tag on Anderson.

Playing primarily as a number 8, the young Englishman is seen by United’s recruitment department as a long term replacement for Bruno Fernandes. While his stats aren’t Bruno level he still finds himself in the top 10-20% of players for shot creating actions, successful carries, progressive passing, touches per 90, clearances, tackles won, and aerial duels won. At 23, his numbers represent a lot of potential to play both sides of the ball, a skill Bruno seems incapable of mastering.

Verdict: Buy, if he is available. United need a number 6 more than a Bruno back up but, United also need to be opportunistic in the market.

Conor Gallagher

According to Fabrizio Romano and David Ornstein, Conor Gallagher has been a target for the Red Devils since last summer. The United front office sees him as a possible stopgap for our midfield depth issues.

Manchester United would prefer a loan, but according to Sports Illustrated. Atletico are demanding $60 million on a permanent deal.

At only 25, he represents a younger more versatile option in midfield over Bruno and Casemiro. He is more Premier League proven than Ugarte. He also provides more experience and defensive coverage over Mainoo. What’s more, he ranks in the top 10-15% of players for non penalty goals, non penalty xG, assists, pass completion, progressive carries, successful take-ons, touches per 90, progressive passes, and interceptions.

Regardless, if I am Amorim and Wilcox, I see his relegation to the Athletico bench as concerning. I also fear he won’t get much game time behind Casemiro and Bruno, while he also isn’t good enough to replace either. Which makes his $60 million price tag a concern.

Verdict: This is a good signing if its a loan deal or a loan with an option to buy. But $60 million to high a price for a backup player. I’d rather spend $60 million on bringing Scott McTominay back to Old Trafford.

Robert Lewandowski

Manchester United’s interest in Robert Lewandowski dates back to the Ferguson era. So, it comes as no surprise that when his contract negotiations at Barcelona stalled he was immediately linked to Old Trafford. With his current deal expiring in the summer, should negotiations remain at an impasse, the January window is the last opportunity Barcelona will have to sell him.

Ruben Amorim is being described as a big fan of Lewandowski and is pushing for the move. Despite it being in violation of the clubs new transfer policy. At 37 the Polish striker hardly has any sell on appeal.

That being said, his purchase is being pitched the same as Cavani, Ibrahimovic and Ronaldo 2.0. An experienced goal scorer who can pick up 15-20 goals a season and mentor younger players.

My only argument against the idea is that United are also rumored to be chasing Harry Kane’s signature. Kane has a $65 million buyout clause that activates this summer if he notifies Bayern in the January window what his new club will be.

Kane is a steal at $80 million, and in my opinion a better option that Lewi. He is younger, Premier League proven, and driven to come back to England to beat Alan Shearer’s all time goal scoring record. Where as Lewandowski is reportedly just looking for his final payday.

Verdict: Hold out for Harry Kane.

Rafael Leao

An alternative to Lewandowski and Kane that is in line with Ratcliffe’s transfer policies is Rafael Leao. The AC Milan forward is seen as a young, dynamic option at number 9. Leao has played across the front three for Milan and has racked up an impressive tally of a goal or assist every other match while in Italy. This season he already has four goals in six matches.

His versatility across the front line would make him ideal cover during Sesko, Mbeumo and Amad’s absences.

However, AC Milan have supposedly slapped a $130 million release clause on his contract. While the Italian press are claiming he could be let go for as little as $100 million. For that amount of money I would rather go after Carlos Baleba.

Personally, I am not impressed by Leao. United paid less than $75 million for each of our current front three and all of them have a better scoring record than Leao. Even Mason Mount has a better goal and assist per match ratio and he cost United $60 million.

Verdict: Pass. Not worth it at half the price.

Jobe Bellingham

Before moving to Borussia Dortmund, United were reportedly chasing Jobe Bellingham’s signature. However, the 20 year old midfielder chose to follow in his brother Jude’s footsteps by moving to Germany.

What may play into the Red Devils favor now is that he has thus far failed to cement a regular roll in the Dortmund squad. The reason being given for his trouble settling in is his difficulty assimilating into German culture and learning the language.

The plot recently took another twist. Bellingham’s father/agent had it out with the Borussia Dortmund hierarchy over his lack of game time, throwing a wrench into the young Britain’s potential future at BVB.

German media outlets are still reporting he will not be sold regardless of his struggles. Apparently, the Bundesliga side think they can cash in on him in a few years to the level they did with his brother.

If Dortmund were willing to sell at a reasonable price, then I would buy him immediately. Reports and highlights suggest he will be even better than his big brother. And, he would be an incredible long term replacement for Bruno. Unfortunately, given Borussia Dortmund’s belief they may one day be able to sell him for $120+ million, that seems unlikely.

Verdict: This seems an improbable deal. But if Dortmund were willing to sell at a fair price then he is worth signing.

Marc-Andre ter Stegen

Marc-Andre ter Stegen coming to Old Trafford is one of the most plausible rumors I have heard so far. ESPN, Sky and the Athletic are all reporting that Manchester United have already inquired about his services.

Barcelona are desperate for cash as they struggle with PSR issues of their own. Ter Stegen has also recently fallen down the pecking order behind Jaon Garcia after he had to have back surgery.

If he can get fit he would be an excellent option for Amorim. Not just as a keeper but as a mentor to young Senne Lammens. Whom lest we forget is still only 23.

Because of Barcelona’s money problems, ter Stegen’s recent injury and the expectation that he would be Barcelona’s number 2 keeper, it is being inferred that the Catalan outfit would be willing to let him go for a modest fee. Making his transfer to United a win for everyone.

He is quite simply a generational goalkeeper. Regardless that age and injury history make him a gamble it would be a gamble worth taking if it is either a loan or a transfer fee of $20 million or less.

Verdict: If the rumors are true, I would take him in a heartbeat.

Oihan Sancet

Sancet is the style of all action number 8 that Amorim wants Bruno to be. He has been sensational for Athletic Club. At 25 years of age he has an $80 million release clause. However the Spanish media is reporting a deal is in the early phases of discussion for about $70 million. His dynamism and creativity are being seen as the ideal traits for a long term replacement for Bruno Fernandes.

Sancet, for now, seems like as much a possibility as Gallagher and ter Stegen. Unfortunately, his signing is likely to come with delayed outcomes as long as United hold on to our Portuguese captain. If he is viewed as a replacement for Bruno, he is likely to see very little game time this season, like Mainoo.

We need players who can make an immediate impact, not play understudy. Although, if United decide to let Mainoo go out on loan, and Bruno sees more game time as a number ten when Mbeumo goes to AFCON, then this deal may be worth doing. Especially if Nottingham Forest put up a fight to keep Elliot Anderson.

Verdict: I would like to see United focus on recruiting players who can contribute more defensively. But again, with so few top defenders and defensive midfielders available, Sancet may be another serendipitous option.

Ousmane Diomande

Ousmane Diomande is a central defender playing for Sporting. According to Spanish outlets Diomande would be available for around $60 million. A fee commensurate to United’s signing of Leny Yoro.

At 21 he is being dubbed the next Gabriel. His attacking prowess, build up play, ball handling abilities and passing range all rank in the top ten percent of European players. If developed properly he and Yoro could anchor the United defense for another decade.

However, he is yet another player being linked to United simply because of his history with our current manager. Moreover, at his age he is not a ready made option.

Like Bellingham, Anderson and Sancet I simply don’t see him getting game time this season. United are desperate for players that are ready to make an immediate impact. Making their pursuit of the Ivorian in January seem superfluous at worst and opportunistic at best.

Verdict: Diomande is a great long term prospect for United, but for $60 million, United’s money is better spent elsewhere in January.

What Should Fans Expect from Manchester United in the January Transfer Window?

There are several other high profile players that Manchester United have been linked to in January. Vinicius Jr., Endrick, Morten Hjulmand, Marc Guehi, Victor Roque, Antoine Semenyo, Morgan Rogers, and Paqueta have all be thrown around in the tabloids. Even a triumphant return for Danny Welbeck has been tossed out there for good measure.

I also opted to leave Harry Kane off this list. Regardless of the fact that Kane has to notify Bayern during the January window if a team is going to activate his buyout clause, this is still a deal that cant get done until the summer.

There is simply too little evidence that United are chasing any of these players with any seriousness. Either the rumor has no foundation, the players parent clubs have vehemently denied they are for sale, or the logistics of the transfer are so outrageous that the deal isn’t worth considering.

It is also probably a safe assumption that any attacking players United are linked with are secondary targets. Amorim has made it clear in his pressers, that his biggest concern at United right now is how many goals we concede. Thus far this season, United have allowed 20 goals in 12 matches. In contrast, Arsenal who have the best defense in the league have kept 13 clean sheets and allowed only 5 goals in 17 matches.

A Dream Transfer Window

If I am Wilcox and Amroim looking at this list, I am pushing for the following moves. First, I would send Mainoo out on loan. Even though Amorim wants to keep him, he is at they age where he needs game time to develop. Then to fill the void in our depth chart from losing Mainoo, I would use the loan fee to fund a loan with an option to buy for Conor Gallagher.

Then I would chase a double swoop for Diomande and either Anderson or Sancet. Ideally for no more than a combined $110 million for two of the three. However, given United’s limited funds, the asking price for those three players and our front office’s sluggish transfer history, that might be asking too much.

Lastly I’d look to offload Altay Bayinidir and use the profits combined with the last $10 million in the transfer warchest to make an offer for ter Stegen. As good as Lammens has been, he is still learning his trade. And, there are few keepers left in game that are better and more experienced than Marc-Andre ter Stegen.

A Likely Transfer Window

According to Fabrizio Romano, United are likely to focus on one major deal this window. That deal will most likely be Baleba, supplemented by opportunistic loans.

After reading the tea leaves my best guess as to what will actually happen; United will land loan deals for Gallagher and ter Stegen, but they will likely be saddled with obligations to buy. Then they will overpay by $10-15 million for Baleba because it’s the January window and United are clearly desperate to sign him.

Ratcliffe and Wilcox might even be stupid enough to listen to Amorim and go after Robert Lewandowski. He wants out of Barcelona and Barcelona need the money. United need a striker. And there are no guarantees that United can land Harry Kane in the summer. Barcelona, Manchester United, Tottenham, and Chelsea all want Kane, while Bayern would love to hold onto him.

As captain for his country, a generational goal scorer and leader with an elite mentality Kane would be the perfect player to bring in. Especially if we lose Bruno and Casemiro in the summer. However, this deal seems like a long shot.

Despite the assertions of the press that Lewi wants one last big payday, he is still a world class goal scorer. Something United have missed since Ronaldo left. My only hope is that United do smart deals. The last thing Ratcliffe and Wilcox need to be doing is paying above market value for a 37 year old who can leave on a free transfer in the summer. Though history would suggest that the Red Devils may do just that.

Glory, Glory Man United!