Is Erik ten Hag the Manager for Manchester United?

Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United Future Hanging By a Thread

Erik ten Hag’s job security has been waning more and more as the season comes to a close. Many believe that INEOS are waiting until the end of the season to make their move. Then like Louis van Gaal, ten Hag will be summarily dismissed.

Many pundits are quick to point out that there have been recently confirmed leaks stating that United have already contacted both Kieran McKenna and Mauricio Pochettino’s representatives. These reports go further to suggest that the club would not be engaging in conversations with other coaches’ representatives if Erik ten Hag’s dismissal was not already a foregone conclusion.

Based on this seasons performances alone, it is impossible to see any kind of progress or success in this squad.

However, the common narrative is not always based on a holistic interpretation of the situation. It is also impossible for anyone to deny that there is currently a perfect storm of problems at United. Problems that have been perpetuated and compounded by poor decision making from the owners and front office. Meanwhile, many of those problems go well beyond the privy of Erik ten Hag.

Managers Rarely Survive New Ownership

When someone asks me, do I think we should stick or twist on the manager? I find myself asking, is there an argument that Erik ten Hag, while not perfect, has done as good as any other manager could do at dragging Manchester United through this storm?

Despite all of United’s problems this season, I find the answer to this question heavily convoluted. Perhaps I have done too well at conditioning myself to believe that the Glazers are a singular source behind United’s stuttering form and repeated false dawns. However, the reality is when any entity has consistently failed so regularly to fulfill its potential, the buck stops with the person at the top. Those persons at United are the Glazers.

Unfortunately, for Erik ten Hag, the Glazers have finally made one good decision. The decision to bring in Sir Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS as a minority owner, with sporting control of the club. His arrival has so far been great for the club, and the sense of relief it instills in the fans. However, it will almost certainly mean ten Hag’s tenure at Manchester United will come to a premature end.

Forget for a moment any arguments against Erik ten Hag’s tactics, falling out with players, coaching methods, or his ability to affect a match. The bottom line is, managers rarely survive new owners. Let alone a new CEO, director of football, and technical director.

When new owners arrive, the trend has been to either fire the manager on the spot, or allow them to finish out the season before ‘respectfully’ parting ways. Meanwhile, there has been little indication from any party as to where ten Hag fits into the vision Ratcliffe has for the Red Devils’ future.

The INEOS Era

Additionally, the evidence so far suggest that INEOS intend to absorb Manchester United in an attempt to create a multinational conglomerated football enterprise. Similar to what Manchester City have done under the City Football Group.

Manchester United will join FC Lasusanne, OGC Nice, and Racing Club Abidjan of Ivory Coast Ligue One, the Mercedes F1 team, New Zealand’s All Blacks rugby team, the British national sailing team, a multi tour winning cycling team, and a collection of the best distance runners in the world in the INEOS sporting galaxy.

A growing agglomeration that INEOS undoubtedly sees as a natural evolution for the future of global sporting enterprise, with the added bonus of inherent sports washing. In the shadow of such a monolithic transition, Erik ten Hag can, at times, appear out of his depth.

Can Erik ten Hag Rescue the Red Devils Under Ratcliffe?

But, I also can’t help but wonder if there is yet a way for INEOS and Erik ten Hag to still work together. Now that ten Hag is into his second season developing this team, the path of least resistance may be to back the manger.

Bear with me for a moment. Manchester United are not just getting a new owner. They are getting a new CEO, technical director, and director of football. Several players are all but confirmed to be leaving the club. There are rumors of massive player turnover from the pool of players that are not to be released.

Some rumors go as far to say United plan to listen to offers for any and all players. The hope from Omar Berrada and his new team is to offload up to a dozen senior players this summer.

United also appear to be expanding their internal departments to include a more robust scouting network and sports analytics department. Additionally, there is a plan to build a whole new department, who’s sole prepose is to form player pathways between the growing catalogue of INEOS football teams. Again, similar to what Manchester City have done.

And, United are getting a new stadium as well as a new training facility.

Too Much Change is Irresponsible and Expensive

I, like Alex and John on the ARD pod, have harbored the sentiment of, burn the whole thing to the ground and rebuild. It is hard to identify so many problems within a club and not want to simply wipe the slate clean. But, this kind of approach to a business of any kind has historically been irresponsible and usually too cost prohibitive. In many cases, hitting the reset button has proven more precarious and detrimental than riding out the storm.

There are huge, negative implications of working too quickly. United risks becoming the next Manchester City. Buying our trophies, and violating financial doping laws to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

For those of you who don’t agree with me so far, perhaps we can agree on this. The amount of change that is reported to be on the horizon for Untied is expensive. To the tune of billions of dollars.

Where is that money coming from? A new owner, especially a minority owner, is not tantamount to a blank check. A responsible rebuild considers where it is best to spend money in the short vs long term. Otherwise we are likely to end up full circle back where we currently are.

To that point, Erik ten Hag will cost Untied more than $10 million to buy out of his contract. What’s more, the financial layout for a new manager will be tens of millions more, in addition to all of the transfers a new manger is likely to demand. Which is likely to perpetuate the cycle that has forced the club into their current state.

Those reasons alone are enough for some fans to believe ten Hag should stay. If only for a sense of interim fiscal responsibility.

Anti – Erik ten Hag Media Campaign

As football fans, all to often, we allow our decisions to be governed by emotion, social media or mainstream reporting. Yet, it is no longer the job of reporting agencies and social media to present the most accurate information. The question that matters most is what will get the most clicks/views/reposts. Not, what is truthfully happening.

This has led to a reactionary, bias, anti Erik ten Hag narrative, devoid of any perspective or relativity.

One bad season under and everyone ignores or forgets the influences of the Glazer family. And the poor leadership from men like Ed Woodward and John Murtaugh that have pushed United to this point.

Or, one bad season leads to everyone forgetting the merits that got ten Hag the job to begin with. The same merits that we as fans lauded the Glazers and Murtaugh for recognizing. So many of us were convinced this was the first good managerial decision the front office had made since Moyes.

We as United fans should be smart enough and patient enough to know that a rebuild, like the kind United needs, takes more than two seasons. And not all of the transitional seasons are going to go well. As ten Hag has repeatedly pointed out this season, persistence and togetherness are key.

Our frustration is not a free license to sabotage or prematurely deject a manager. Nor is it justification for us as fans to blindly buy into the common narrative without weighing that narrative against more than a decade of bad decisions from an incompetent front office.

Erik ten Hag by Comparison

Erik ten Hag vs Sir Alex Ferguson

Since Fergie’s retirement United have won five trophies. Additionally, they have made it to a further four cup finals, and three cup semi finals, while finishing in the top four, five of the ten seasons since his departure, and qualifying for Europe in all but one season.

In his first two seasons, despite this campaigns results, Erik ten Hag still has guided United to three cup finals, two cup semifinals, and a cup trophy. He has also led United to a third place finish in a league dominated by a singular team that has thus far been immune to financial fair play laws.

Despite the political challenges the Dutch manager still has a better record at Old Trafford than Sir Alex in his first seven seasons at United. He also has had no director of football to work with. Where as Fergie had David Gill.

For perspective, Sir Alex didn’t win his first trophy until his 4th season. He didn’t win his first Premier League until his 7th year at United. He didn’t win a European trophy at United until his 12th season.

If Fergie’s precedent is the litmus test for United managers, then Erik ten Hag is actually well ahead of schedule.

Erik ten Hag vs His Contemporaries

I understand as United fans we expect the club to compete for Champions and Premier League trophies. But, United have won more trophies and averaged a higher league finish in the last ten years, than any other team in the league save Liverpool and Manchester City. A feat that should not be scoffed at.

For years fans and reporters have pointed out United’s lack of culture and elite mentality. Especially, after the Solskjaer/Rangnick era. As promised, ten Hag has done more than any other United manager to rid the club of negative influences. Ronaldo, Sancho, Henderson, Pogba, Lingard, were all seen as disruptive, and were exiled, released or sold.

Erik ten Hag’s overall win percentage with United is 59.98%. Higher than any other United manager post Ferguson, and is on par with Sir Alex’s overall United record. It is also a better win percentage in a managers first 100 Premier League matches than any other current manager save Pep Guardiola.

In his first two seasons ten Hag took United to more cup finals and won more trophies than Arteta in his five years at Arsenal. He also has a better record than Klopp in his first three seasons at Liverpool, and than Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle in the same period.

Statistically speaking, now that Klopp is leaving Liverpool, ten Hag is the second best manager in the league, behind only Guardiola. This is despite the fact that this season was statistically one of United’s worst ever campaigns.

So Many Mitigating Circumstances for Erik ten Hag

Since coming in ten Hag has been forced to deal with Cristiano Ronaldo and his tell all interview, sexual abuse and rape accusations towards Mason Greenwood and Antony, stripping Harry Maguire of the captaincy, Marcus Rashford’s extra curricular activities and racial abuse, the Jadon Sancho saga, new ownership, crumbling facilities, and non-stop abuse and speculation from the media.

Additionally, the incompetence of the executive staff above the manager has led to an over reliance on Erik ten Hag for things like scouting, recruitment, and player analytics. Things that should have never been in his job description. All of which has made ten Hag an easy scapegoat.

The antiquated notion of an all powerful manager in the ilk of Ferguson has lingered at the club, unjustifiably hanging over every manager post Ferguson. Ultimately, this has led to false expectations being placed on every new manager, inevitably leading to their fated failure.

The people who have been running things at Old Trafford care more about the marketability of the club than the teams success. Through their prioritization of milking United’s brand for everything it is worth, they have driven the club into this situation.

Buckle Up for Some More of the Excuse Factory

For all of these issues, many existed at the club last season. Yet, the manager still guided the squad to a third place finish, two cup finals, a european cup semifinal and a cup trophy. So, what went wrong this season?

INJURIES, INJURIES INJURIES!!!

The answer, Manchester United and Erik ten Hag have had to get through this season with more than 70 separate cases of injury, illness or suspension.

MORE THAN 70!!

What’s more, in United’s 51 matches so far this season, they have fielded 42 different lineups. Meanwhile positive performances have been dominated by United’s recently promoted teenagers, like Mainoo and Garnacho. That is unprecedented in a season. How is ten Hag, or any manager, meant to build a team with so much inconsistency in player availability, while only being able to rely on youth prospects for wins?

As a former physiotherapist and researcher for a professional rugby and football team, as well as the International Olympic Committee, I take a lot of offence to people constantly belittling the impact that this many injuries can have on a club. It is especially disheartening when so many Manchester United fans are the quickest to dismiss the impact this has had on the squad.

Such a high number of injuries impacts moral, the ability to find form, and team cohesion. It is mentally exhausting for everyone, fans, players and staff alike. The coaches can’t get any kind of consistency out of the players when United have only played the same squad in back to back matches four times this season. I have seen this kind of crisis professionally first hand, and no team is immune to it. No matter how critical fans can become.

Too Many Matches

Many of us are also quick to buy into the narrative that Erik ten Hag is over training his players. Which inherently leads to more injuries. Again, another easy excuse that places the blame on the manager without considering the bigger picture.

Say what you will about the reportedly exhausting training methods ten Hag uses. They are no different than any other top flight manager. Look at Guardiola, Di Zerbi, Arteta, Klopp, Ancelotti, or Tuchel’s training regimens. In several cases, they are even more demanding than ten Hag’s. It isn’t ten Hag’s fault when the players are unable to meet the demands of elite football.

This many injuries is a direct result of Manchester United having played more than 60 matches last season, combined with a winter World Cup, during which the vast majority of United’s first team players made it to the quarter finals or later.

As an example, players like Bruno Fernandes, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, Rafael Varane and Marcus Rashford all played 65 or more matches in what was meant to be a 40 week season. These are human beings, not machines. This season’s digression is a direct result of that humanity, more so than any managerial foible that Erik ten Hag is being accused of.

If you want to blame someone, blame FIFA for agreeing to a winter World Cup. Blame UEFA and the FA for not extending the season, then cramming so many matches into such a short period. Blame the Glazers and Murtaugh for forcing ten Hag and the squad to play 10 preseason matches in 14 days after many of the players had less than one week’s vacation.

The Rare Valid Point from Craig Burley

That many matches leads to serious injuries, which leads to many of the remaining fit players playing exhausted or with other minor, injuries. As player exhaustion and the injury list grows, it leads to a digression in performances and mentality. Meanwhile, naturally, moral and players’ intrinsic motivation drops, manifesting into the kinds of performances we have seen from United this season. Which in return leads to more injuries and a further decline in moral.

It is a vicious cycle that can only be course-corrected with the return of key players, and greater depth in squad quality.

In a recent edition of ESPN’s Press Room, long time Manchester United hater, Craig Burley even pointed out this fact. Just because Manchester United look low energy, and have conceded recorded breaking negative statistics this season, does not automatically mean the manager is at fault, or that the players are not playing for him.

He went further to say that United’s players don’t look as if they have given up on the manager. As was the obvious case with Mourinho, Ole and Rangnick. They simply look exhausted. And a some point the players need to stand up and take responsibility.

Burley also pointed out, and I agree with him, regardless of how self inflicted most of United precarious moments have been this season, the players would not have put in the kinds of performances they did against Liverpool, Villa, Wolves, Spurs, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Crystal Palace or Newcastle if they had lost faith.

Has Erik ten Hag Lost the Player’s Support?

Players being overstretched, due to a lack of rotation because of injuries, leads to player burnout. Which leads to mistakes and sluggish performances.

As fans watching, this paradigm manifests into a perceived lack of motivation from the players. Or that the squad has lost faith in the manager. But, in United’s case Burley and I both agree that this is the illusion that has become Manchester United, not the reality.

On numerous occasions throughout this season, United have shown their grit, fight and togetherness. But too often, that is not enough to compensate for how stretched the squad is.

My point being, performances like the comeback wins against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Aston Villa or Wolves, the draw against Tottenham or two draws against Liverpool, don’t happen when a squad has lost faith or motivation. To assume otherwise, and subsequently blame Erik ten Hag is feckless and emotive.

Simply put, It is impossible to accurately judge Erik ten Hag as a manager on this season alone. Especially considering the sheer volume of extravaritable mitigating circumstances dragging United down. And it is irresponsible to assume that a collective low tone from the players is by default a direct result of the manager. Especially when history has shown that this group of players lacks a unified mentality.

Erik ten Hag is Not the Problem

In this team, there are countless players that have failed the previous managerial regimes. The history of mediocrity with these players should be weighted more than the perceived inadequacies of the manager. The sheer number of bluffers, whingers, and weak minded players at Old Trafford is not a fault of Erik ten Hag.

By comparison he has done more to eradicate these players than Moyes, van Gaal, Mourinho, or Ole. And by comparison, his recruitment strategy has emphasized player mentality over individual skill more than any of these previous United managers.

As sports fans our demand for instant gratification has made us fickle. But, sporting evolution never happens at the speed demanded by its constituency. And rarely are supporters patient enough to allow such evolution to occur. But this is a dangerous precedent that has led to recent financial doping issues across the sport as a whole.

Chelsea, Manchester City, Juventus, Barcelona, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Tottenham, and Newcastle have all been recently investigated, charged, and/or convicted of breaching the Premier League’s or UEFA’s profit and sustainability laws. All because their owners felt the pressure of impatient fans, and the drive for immediate financial success. United is dangerously close to falling to the same temptation, if it hasn’t already.

Football has changed a lot in the 2000’s. It is on a more level playing field than the generations of multi-decade long dynasties of a single teams dominance on the league. In such a competitive environment, to expect United to simply bounce back in a climate that is directly contradictory to success is an impossible task for any manager, let alone Erik ten Hag.

The Proof is in the Pudding

In his first two years with Manchester United, Erik ten Hag still has a better record than Ferguson did in his first five years at Old Trafford. He Also has a better record than the vast majority of his contemporaries have had in their first three years at their respective clubs.

Meanwhile, in contrast, Manchester United’s recent history of ruining world class players and cycling through elite managers shows how toxic the environment has become at Old Trafford. Those two things together show haw hard ten Hag’s job has been. Combined, they are also evidence of how well he has done with what he has been given.

I cannot gloss over the fact that this season was statistically United’s worst on record since the Premier League began. But, I would also be remiss if I didn’t point out the countless extenuating conditions, facilitated by poor ownership, that have short-changed every United manager since the beginning of the Glazer reign. A handicap Erik ten Hag has inherited.

All too often United has seen its worst moments guized under veil of poor coaching. Meanwhile, indigent ownership is the compounding culprit.

Erik ten Hag Playing With One Hand Tied Behind His Back

The weak collective player mentality that plagues United, which has led to the premature sacking of every manager in the last ten years, is a direct result of such poor decision making from the top.

The cumulative effect is every United manager needing to shoulder the accumulation of problems created from previous regimes. Erik ten Hag is merely the latest Manager to have to face this at Manchester Untied. Now that Ratcliffe and Co. are in charge, as ten Hag has expressed, we should expect a more measured and ‘common sense’ approach from the hierarchy at Old Trafford.

I believe that ten Hag deserves another season. At the very least he deserves time next season to prove to Ratcliffe he can do the job. If by November there a little to no improvement in the squads performances then I would not blame INEOS for sacking him.

As usual, only time can tell what will become of United and Erik ten Hag. I can only hope that the current manager is allotted the time necessary, that his predecessors were not granted, to build the next great United team.

Glory, Glory Man United!