Here We Go Again
In the last few weeks speculation has been building regarding the long term future of Manchester United… Again. If rumors are to be believed this time, the Glazer family have been exploring options to sell the club. Or at the very least bring in additional partners to Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
Manchester United’s share price on the NYSE has dropped by almost half under Sir Jim. Meanwhile, the clubs debt has increased by almost $300 million in his tenure. This has caused the American owners grow disillusioned with INEOS’s operational control of the club. Rightfully so, as Ratcliffe has thus far underwhelmed at Old Trafford.
Now that the minority owner is well into his second year in charge of United, the majority owners are legally allowed to reassess the terms of their agreement. More specifically, the Glazers are now free to negotiate with any parties interested in purchasing United.
Given the Glazer family’s penchant for a profit first mentality, and the lack of success during Ratcliffe’s time as CEO of United, it is no surprise that they are reassessing their options.
Why is Manchester United For Sale This Time?
It was widely reported when the Glazers originally put Manchester United up for sale that their preference was to sell the club outright. While they were willing to listen to all investment options, they clearly wanted to cash out of Old Trafford.
When it became clear that Sir Jim Ratcliffe was the last man standing, they made sure to add an insurance policy to the deal.
That policy stated that the Glazers have the authority to reopen talks with additional investors or potential buyers after Ratcliffe reached his one year anniversary. What’s more, they could do so without consulting or notifying the INEOS and United CEO. Should the club sell, the only obligation the Glazers have is to payout Ratcliffe at the $33 per share he originally bought in at.
With the exception of the last few matches, United’s performances on the pitch in the last year have, by in large, been loathsome. That combined with the clubs rising debt and the current strength of the stock market now is the best opportunity the Glazers have had to sell since their first attempt two years ago.
In the Glazers eyes, all of the stars are beginning to line up for another attempt to milk Old Trafford for one last payday.
What Does a Sale Mean for Sir Jim Ratcliffe?
There is still time for Ratcliffe to turn things around at United. The negotiations during the Glazers’ first attempt to sell took almost a year. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any deal will be struck that would see Ratcliffe leave the club this season.
Fortunately for INEOS, there is one other important stipulation to the Ratcliffe-Glazer partnership.
If Untied meet certain performance standards, on and off the pitch, inside of three years of Ratcliffe’s reign, then Sir Jim could himself purchase the club outright. Presumably at a price less than what the Glazers are currently asking for from any new buyers.
However, there are two problems with this stipulation that Ratcliffe must contend with. First off, United are miles away from meeting said standards. Second, if the Glazers decided to sell after the three year mark then he would be forced to give up his shares at market value. At the moment, current stock valuations put United at half of what it was worth when he first bought in.
If the club is for sale, it would behove Ratcliffe to take the compensation now and leave. At least he walks away with how much he has already invested into the club. His other option is to stay the course and risk losing most of his investment as the Glazers grow restless.
Something tells me that the British petrochemicals billionaire is too stubborn to walk away this early into his reign.
What Does a Sale Mean for Manchester United?
The first thing that selling Manchester United would do is piss off a lot of people. When new owners arrive at a club there is usually massive staff and player turnover.
That being said, a lot of people stand to lose their jobs if new owners arrive. Including Ratcliffe. Given how much change the club has endured since his arrival the consensus is that a sale so soon would be a huge detriment at Old Trafford.
There are however, benefits to new owners. Most of the rumors suggests that any upcoming bid would be for full ownership. Meaning that the Glazers and Ratcliffe would be out. A fact I don’t think would upset too many United fans.
Additionally, it is being reported that any upcoming bid would include wiping out all of Manchester United’s $1.2 billion debt. Alex and John recently pointed out on the ARD pod how important that would be for the club.
Their argument was, it is great that the club produced record revenue this year. North of $660 million. However, that revenue essentially means nothing in terms of PSR because of the debt lingering over Old Trafford. If United had little or no debt, that revenue would give them immense spending power. But, with so much debt, that $660 million is nothing more than an impressive number that the owner can use to propagandize the fans.
There are definitely benefits to either staying the course versus bringing in new owners. As usual, only time and hindsight will tell which is the right decision for Manchester United.
How Much is Manchester United Really Worth?
Based solely on Manchester United’s current share value on the NYSE ($18.47 per share at the time of writing this), the club is only worth about $3 billion.
However, it is assumed that the Glazers have no interest in paying Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s drag-on clause out of pocket. Thus, If you combine that $3 billion valuation with Ratcliffe’s buyout ($33 per share), the club will cost any bidders at least $5 billion.
This has led to reports from the New York Times and The Athletic that claim the Glazer’s goal has always been to make United the most expensive sports team on the planet. Irrespective of the clubs crumbling facilities, astronomical debt and market value.
That brings us back to the $5 billion mark. Which was the recent sale price of the Boston Celtics. Who currently hold the record for most expensive sports team of all time.
I don’t think the Glazers are naive enough to think that they can demand the $6.1 billion they originally wanted from Qatari Sheikh Jassim Bin Hamad Al Thani during their first attempt to sell the club. Especially given how the last two years has gone.
Nonetheless, the Glazers aren’t stupid either. They will look at the sale price of the Celtics and think, United are a much bigger global brand than the Bostonians. As such, best estimates suggest the American owners will ask for somewhere in the realm of $5.5-5.7 billion.
Turki Al-Sheikh
A new name in the Manchester United sale saga is Turki Al-Sheikh. Al-Sheikh is a leading advisor to the Saudi Arabian royal court and chairman of the Saudi General Entertainment Authority. In short, he is Saudi Arabia’s premier culture and sports promoter. So, when he speaks about anything sports related, people tend to listen.
Why is he suddenly important to United fans? Recently Al-Sheikh posted a series highly controversial messages on his X account.
It all began during the October international break when he posted the following message. “The best news I heard today is that Manchester United is now in an advanced stage of finalising a deal to sell to a new investor. I hope they’re better than the previous owners.”
The post sparked a frenzy of speculation after being viewed more than six million times. Al-Sheikh then took to social media again the next day to clarify his initial post. This time he stated, “My post about Manchester United’s potential sale meant one thing: the club is in an advanced negotiation phase with a new investor. I’m posting this as a fan who wishes the deal to happen, though it might not necessarily happen.”
He also went further to clarify that he was not the investor nor is said person/s from Saudi Arabia.
Given Al-Sheikh’s prominence in the sports world and his intimate ties with the Saudi government, his words are being taken with all due seriousness.
Potential New Manchester United Owners
This where things get tricky. Right now it is impossible to know who Turki Al-Sheikh is talking about. Or, who else may be interested. Manchester United is a publicly traded company. Which means any deals from incoming investors or buyers has to be disclosed. In short, if there were any serious offers being made then we would know about it.
However, in mergers and acquisitions, just because an offer has to be disclosed does not mean that the negotiations must also be disclosed. This has led to building speculation that new owners may be arriving at Old Trafford sooner than later. Especially after the recent comments from Al-Sheikh.
At the moment there are three potential sources of buyers being reported. Frustratingly, there are too few known details about any deals being discussed. As is to be expected this early in the process.
The United Arab Emirates
There have been several reports dating back even before Turki Al-Sheikhs comments, that a consortium bid from the UAE has been in the works for some time. It is unknown who would be the primary investors of the group. Or how many investors would be part of the bid.
However, according to Ben Jacobs, a prominent sports journalist for CBS, there is a lot of traction to these rumors, beyond Al-Sheikhs comments. Jacobs claims he has first hand knowledge that the UAE based investment group, International Holding Company (IHC) has been at the center of negotiations.
Jacobs goes further to say that the IHC has been holding talks with unnamed parties as well as former Manchester United legends in an effort to organize an investment consortium to take over the club.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Manchester Evening News is reporting that the bid would be for a total takeover of the club. MEN and Jacobs also state that the consortium is insistent that former Manchester United legends be apart of the bid. Mainly as ambassadors.
They have already approached Wayne Rooney, Eric Cantona and David Beckham. As has been confirmed by all three men. Meanwhile, there are also whispers that Park Ji Sung and Rio Ferdinand may be involved given their ties to the UAE.
Otherwise, most reporting outlets are stating that the group is still being finalized as they seek to rally enough funds to launch a competitive bid.
Qatar
Qatari Sheikh Jassim Bin Hamad Al Thani is the most obvious candidate on this list. Sheikh Jassim was the strongest of all the bidders during the first sale attempt. His bid included purchasing the club outright and paying off all of the clubs debt. There were also rumors at the time that the bid included a guarantee of a new stadium and training ground, as well as significant investment into the squad.
Up until the last minute, it was assumed that the Glazers preferred Sheikh Jassim’s bid over Sir Jim Ratcliffes. The process went all the way until the Glazer’s deadline day. At which point the Sheikh failed to disclose proof of funds for his bid, making Ratcliffe the default winner.
The assumption was that the Glazers were asking way too much at $6.1 billion. Jassim was willing to pay above value for United, but the Glazers pushed the sale price too high. Hence, he backed out of the deal.
It is also assumed by many that he is still strongly interested in purchasing the club. Though, the only foundation to this assumption is his prior interest combined with the Glazers being forced to lower their asking price.
The problem with the Sheikh Jassim rumors are again Ben Jacobs. Jacobs is reporting that he has further inside knowledge that Jassim is unequivocally not interested in reentering the race to purchase the Red Devils. Though I’d recommend taking this with a grain of salt. Jacobs is suspiciously coy about his sources and has a penchant for making unnecessarily categorical comments.
Saudi Arabia
A potential bid from Saudi Arabia has the thinnest argument of these three. Mainly because Turki Al-Sheikh outright stated that the bid he was speaking of didn’t involve anyone from Saudi Arabia.
However, that does not mean that one won’t be coming. For all we know Al-Sheikh is lying, or simply referring to the UAE bid. There is also a scenario in which Al-Sheikh said too much in his first post and was forced to backtrack to cover his ass.
I could also argue that it would be surprising for a bid to not be coming from Saudi Arabia. The reason I say this is because United have been in ongoing negotiations to send the club to Riyadh for a series of midseason friendlies. Specifically, those friendlies would be held during the Riyadh Season, a cultural event which Al-Sheikh is in charge of. Meaning, Al-Sheikh is at the center of said negotiations.
There are clear links between Saudi Arabia and Manchester United. So, riddle me this. Why would a high ranking Saudi official have knowledge of a non Saudi bid to takeover United? Why does he have the authority to speak about it so candidly in public? And, why is he choosing now to talk about it, at the same time that United and the Saudi government are in talks to play a series of mid season friendlies?
This could all very well be happenstance. Yet, the vagueness and suspicion around Al-Sheikhs comments only fan the flames.
What Next for Manchester United?
I am certain that United fans will be heavily split on our opinions about new owners. Most of us want to see the Glazers gone. We want a new stadium, better infrastructure, and a squad and coach that can win trophies. But at what cost?
The Glazers clearly have an exceptionally low standard for the moral fiber of whomever they are willing to sell to. They are more than happy to sacrifice the club’s soul to the highest bidder.
Ratcliffe is using the club to sports wash INEOS’s dismal environmental pollution record. Meanwhile, Sheikh Jassim and any bid coming from Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the UAE are also sports washing in an attempt to cover over their human rights violations and social hyper-conservativeness.
All three countries are currently competing to buy their way to the top of professional football.
Qatar bribed their way to the 2022 World Cup as did Saudi Arabia for the 2034 World Cup. Saudi Arabia has purchased Newcastle using their sovereign sports fund. The UAE sovereign sports fund owns Manchester City. And, the Qatari’s bought PSG.
All three countries have shown that they have little respect for PSR, or any established rules for that matter. Meanwhile, all three would love to make Manchester United the jewel in their propaganda crown.
So, I ask again, how much are Manchester United fans willing to sacrifice for some shiny new toys and a bunch of bought and paid for trophies?
New Owners are Not Always a Solution
As someone who supports the 1958 and the green and gold army, as someone who loves this club unequivocally, I want nothing more than to see the Glazers gone forever. But not at the cost of sacrificing our clubs heritage. Not at the cost of our own morality and ethics as United fans. And absolutely not, if the new owners intend on using Manchester United the same way the Glazers and Ratcliffe have.
I would rather see Old Trafford in ruin than continue the trend of our club being nothing more than a billionaire’s or sovereign’s magic eraser and coin purse.
Paying off United’s debt, getting rid of the Glazers, bringing club legends into the fold, and investing significantly into the club and squad all sounds great. Nevertheless, at the moment it seems as if bringing in new owners would merely allow someone different to use our club as a pawn in their own game.
If the UAE consortium is private money from a global amalgamation of sources that just happens to be hosted by the UAE based IHC than great. But if that bid is backed by the UAE sovereign fund, count me out. At the moment there is no evidence either way.
I would also make the argument that, regardless of what anyone thinks of Ratcliffe, altering the course of a titanic sports enterprise like United takes more than the short time he has been given thus far. Granted Sir Jim has done little to instil faith in the Old Trafford faithful. However, I would still rather stick with the devil we know rather than risk further tarnishing our club with sovereign oil money.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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