Manchester United is Giving Fans Whiplash
Manchester United are now a month into the new season. After a 3-0 win against Southampton and a resounding 7-0 thumping of Barnsley the feel-good factor seems to have returned to Old Trafford. Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford appears to have a smile back on his face, Alejandro Garnacho has only gotten better and Manuel Ugarte looks a proper player.
However, the team have made many of the same mistakes that plagued them last season. There were even moments against Barnsley where United looked vulnerable. Our opening three matches against Fulham, Brighton and Liverpool left a lot to be desired. And after the first 30 min against Southampton, United looked disjointed at best.
To make matters worse; Casemiro is gifting goals to the opposition. Our players still seem to have a loose understanding of the offsides rule. The midfield is still swiss cheese. And playing with Rashford at no. 9 looks way better than the false 9 United have been running all season (I don’t say that in a good way).
The club is beginning to give fans whiplash to start this term. It is performances by spinwheel for Erik ten Hag and Co.
Yet, many of us are quick to either dole out criticism or drink the kool-aid, without remembering where that whiplash is coming from. The legacy left to INEOS and Erik ten Hag by the Glazers, Ed Woodward, Richard Arnold and John Murtaugh was hardly conducive to success or long term consistency.
This is Not the Time to Jump to Conclusions
In that light, we need to keep reminding ourselves, the season has barely started. United is only one of a majority of teams still struggling to find fitness and form. As is typical this early in the campaign.
We also need to remember how contrasting this team can be right now while in transition. Two good performances against bottom table Southampton and League 1 fodder Barnsley is not tantamount to a Manchester United resurgence.
Meanwhile losses to Brighton and Liverpool are not grounds to call for Erik ten Hag’s sacking.
Adding to this early season archetype is, the sheer number of extenuating circumstances from last season, which have created a wake of issues that continue to bleed into the current season.
Too many of the players, who spent most of last season struggling with injuries, are now subject to the time and effort it takes to fully recover and find form.
My point is, there is a lot to consider when judging Manchester United’s recent performances, good or bad. So much so that it is unfair to criticize the club, manager or players until we have had more opportunities to see what this squad and manager are capable of at full strength. Something we should expect to see more of this season.
What’s Gone wrong?
Personally, I think it is far to early in this season to suggest that there is anything going wrong at Old Trafford. The last two matches would actually suggest that United are slowly finding their feet.
The club also have a whole new front office, new coaching staff, a new analytics department, a new head of medical and a host of new players.
Manchester United are in a transition period, again…
It is also safe to say that United are still on the back end of the injury crisis that created so many problems last season. While some players are struggling for fitness after a long summer of international tournament football.
Injuries
Most of us will have not forgotten the more than 60 separate cases of injuries last season. Unfortunately, some of those issues are still causing problems at Carrington.
Mount, Hojlund, Shaw, Lindelof and Yoro have all picked up early injuries. And Tyrell Malacia is still recovering from the same injury that kept him out all of last season. That’s six players who week in and week out would be competing for a starting spot in the team. Six people that we could have used against Liverpool and Brighton.
Fitness is also always an issue for most teams early in the season. Many players will have had a break over the summer and are not up to speed yet. Meanwhile, several squad members represented their nations in the Copa America and the European Cup. Leaving players like Garnacho, Martinez, Mainoo, Bruno, and Zirkzee appearing a little slow to find form.
The overly congested combination of league, cup and international football is taking its toll on the world’s elite players. And United is only one of many clubs suffering as a result. A single player, playing 65+ matches in a 50 week season is asking for disaster.
Manchester United Undergo Open Heart Surgery
In the last four months Manchester United have gained a new owner, CEO, director of football, technical director, director of recruitment, chief financial officer, academy director, medical director, four new first team coaches, and five new first team players.
I challenge anyone out there to deny that, so much change, over such a short period, has huge potential to wreak havoc on a club.
Adding to this upheaval, United’s new owners and front office have implemented a new philosophy about how the club should be run from top to bottom. The changes at the Old Trafford have been wholesale.
At the very least, the manager deserves time to find a working formula within this new construct.
Loss of Popular Players
Just as impactful as all of the new faces around Carrington is the absence of several popular team members. Manchester United offloaded 27 players this transfer window. It was a fire sale at Old Trafford, with INEOS desperate to get deadweight players off the books.
Seven youth prospects were loaned out for the season. Nine academy graduates were sold. Antony Martial and Brandon Williams were released. Tom Huddlestone retired. And Mason Greenwood was finally sold.
Meanwhile, they are just the tip of the iceberg. First team players, Donny van de Beek, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Scott McTominay, Hannibal Mejbri, and Facundo Pellistri were all sold. Jadon Sancho was loaned to Chelsea with an obligation to buy if he plays more than half of Chelsea’s matches. Soyfan Amrabat was returned to his parent club after his loan expired. And last but certainly not least, Raphael Varane was released at the end of his contract.
That is a lot of popular squad members who are no longer at United. It is also a lot of players who logged a lot of minutes last season. It is going to take time for the squad to recover from so many changes.
Manchester United’s Search for Defensive Security
During the 23/24 term United were the second worst team in the league defensively. They allowed a record number of shots per match (20+ per match, 7+ on goal), a record number of goals conceded (58) and their first negative goal difference in the Premier League era (-1).
Manchester United were so bad last season it is a miracle that we finished 8th, still qualified for Europe, and managed to win a trophy. A miracle that Erik ten Hag deserves a lot more credit for.
I have argued several times on this blog that injuries were the predominant factor in United’s 23/24 season. Martinez, Shaw, Malacia, Lindelof, Mount, Varane and even Casemiro were on the treatment table for significant stretches if not most of the season.
A season in which a 36 year old Johnny Evans is our most consistent defender, an 18 year old Kobbie Mainoo is our best midfielder, and we played a lot of the season without a striker, is proof of just how severe United’s injury issues were last season.
However, the writing was on the wall for United’s defensive players long before last seasons struggles. All United’s injury crisis did was expose that writing.
The squad lacked quality in depth. They lacked players that could stay fit. They lacked quality across the back line. And as a result of so much chopping and changing of the defensive unit, they looked devoid of any tactical sense. Hence, why United’s defense was the most changed aspect of the squad in the summer.
Erik ten Hag and INEOS made a statement with there summer signings. The priority was suring up United’s back line.
Leny Yoro
The first new defensive signing to arrive at Carrington this summer was Leny Yoro. He joins us from French League 1 side, Lille. As Manchester United’s most expensive signing of the summer, he was one of the most sought after football commodities this window.
Yoro was born in the suburbs of Paris, because let’s face it, what great French footballers aren’t from some small derelict community in Paris?… At 18 he is still very much a raw talent. But he has all of the ingredients to make an elite defender.
The Frenchman turned away offers from, most notably, Real Madrid. But, there were also rumors of unofficial offers from Juventus, PSG, Chelsea and Barcelona.
At 17 he started all but three matches for Lille last season. Making 44 appearances and playing 90 minutes in all but one of those matches. A testament to his maturity at such a young age.
At 6’3″ he has the telescopic tackling ability of Wan-Bissaka, the passing range of Ferdinand, the pace of Evra, and the intelligence of Varane. He is the beginnings of a Rolls Royce defender in every sense. In his 60 minutes of football in the preseason his class, recovery pace, vision, passing and tackling were all obvious.
When he is fit, he will absolutely give Martinez, de Ligt and Maguire a run for a starting spot. And should all four stay fit, I doubt that we will see much of Lindelof or Evans this season.
Matthijs de Ligt
Matthijs De Ligt was bought, in my opinion, to be the second choice starting defender next to Martinez. De Ligt is an absolute unit. He is young, quick, reads the game better than most. He is also elite at playing out of the back and with the ball at his feet.
Before falling out with Thomas Tuchel, the previous Bayern Munich manager, he was one of the best center backs in the world, at the age of 23. In European football he ranks in the top eight percent of players for non penalty goals, assists, xAssist, passess attempted, successful passes, progressive passes, and xG for a defender.
While his defensive stats don’t quite stack as high, he was bought for his vision and ability to play out of the back. The idea being, Martinez and Ugarte will be used for more tough tackling and breaking up play.
In my opinion, I think de Ligt was the best purchase of this window. A 25 year old, intelligent, former golden boy winner, progressive defender who is hardly ever injured. On paper he is the perfect foil for Martinez. Even in the loss to Liverpool his quality was one of the shining lights of the match for United. And his goal against Southampton is but a taste of his attacking prowess.
I would be surprised if he didn’t play 40 matches this campaign, provided he stays fit.
Noussair Mazraoui
Many of us who don’t follow the Bundesliga will not be all that familiar with Noussair Mazraoui. I for one knew very little about him other than what I saw in the few Champions League matches I saw him play for Bayern, as well as his performances for Morocco at the Qatar World Cup. Fortunately, we are all now getting the chance to be enlightened to his qualities.
Mazraoui is a 26 year old Dutch born Moroccan full back who can play on either side of defense. At 6 feet tall with a three foot vertical leap he can also play as a center back. Meanwhile his passing stats suggest he could just as easily play as a no. 6 as well.
What’s more, he was an integral member of the Moroccan national team that has taken the world by storm since the Qatar World Cup.
Here are a few of his stats which reveal why. For defenders, he ranked in the top five percent of players for assists, pass completion, progressive passes attempted, successful interceptions, tackles, aerial duels won, and touches in the opposition box. He even has a better percentage of successful tackles and attempted tackles than Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
He can tackle, dribble and pass with the best of them. It is exactly the kind of profile you want in a full back. Once Shaw is fit, I fully expect Mazraoui and Shaw to be first choice full backs.
Manuel Ugarte
Manuel Ugarte is probably Manchester United’s most important acquisition all summer. With the exponential decline of Casemiro in the last 24 months, it has become glaringly obvious that United needed a new no. 6
Most of last seasons stats suggest that United’s failings were due to being too easy to play through in midfield. Manchester United were like swiss cheese in the center of the park. Exposing the back line so much is the reason we looked so frail in defense.
On the other hand, over the last three seasons, Ugarte has been in the top one percent (you read that correctly, 1%) of players for pressing, forced turnovers, successful tackles, interceptions, and pass completion. Which means he can break up play and quickly move the ball better than 99% of players in the game.
He won’t get us goals or rack up an assist tally. He isn’t going to thread passes through the eye of a needle. And he certainly won’t be lighting up Old Trafford with Ronaldo-like tricks and flicks. But, he will add a massive shield in front of defense, allowing United to win the ball back and progress upfield quickly. Exactly what Casemiro did when he was so effective in his first season at United.
Ugarte is a blunt instrument. One which United have been sorely missing for a long time. Used correctly he could add great balance to the midfield when Mainoo or Mount play as the no. 8 and Bruno or Eriksen play as the no. 10. He even made Casemiro look good playing alongside him in a deep lying double pivot against Barnsley.
My only criticism of his acquisition is that it has a lot of potential to expedite Casemiro’s continued demise.
The Proof is in the Pudding.
All of these new defensive acquisitions have already shown what they will bring to United. Each has already impressed after being dropped into a struggling team in a rough transitional period.
The proof is in the pudding. Against Liverpool, United only allowed 3 shots on goal, despite losing. They only conceded 4 against Brighton and Southampton. While, against Fulham and Barnsley they only allowed 2 . On average, they have only conceded 11 shots total, and 3 shots on goal per match. Meanwhile, even without a fit no. 9 United are producing, on average, more than 20 shots on the opposition goal.
Many will point out how those stats can still improve. But, I would prefer to point out that those numbers are down from an average 17 shots allowed and 7 shots on goal per match last season. And that is all with Casemiro gifting goals to the opposition, de Ligt and Martinez still learning to play together, no Shaw, and Ugarte still finding his feet.
So, yes we lost to Liverpool. Yes, we lost to Brighton. Yes we were not convincing against Fulham. And yes, the first 30 minutes against Southampton were hard to watch.
But, against Liverpool, United had an almost identical xG, they just didn’t take their chances. What’s more, Casemiro gifted Liverpool two goals. Meanwhile, against Brighton, several controversial calls from the referee completely changed the match.
Despite these early season teething issues, we still look miles better than last season. Progress deserves to be recognized, regardless of how happy we are with performances.
Still Work to be Done
That being said, there is still a lot of work that needs to be done. I don’t say that as a criticism directed at the club, manager or players. I say it in the sense that, the extensive changes that need to happen at Manchester United to get them back to the top of European football take time.
Up until now we haven’t had owners interested in building an elite team. Under Glazer control, United’s front office was instructed to milk every penny they could out of the Red Devil brand.
So, now INEOS, Erik ten Hag and the new front office are stuck negotiating financial fair play issues, a crumbling stadium and training facility, and a random amalgamation of players from several previous regimes that naturally have a hard time playing together.
Fixing a ship when the mast is barely above water is a monumental task that takes time, careful planning and patience.
Strikers
The next area that needs to be addressed is the striker position. Unfortunately, barring any major injuries to Zirkzee and Hojlund, a new striker will likely wait until next summer.
United’s problem, as has been pointed out on the pod several times, is Zirkzee isn’t an out-n-out goal scorer. He’s is great with hold up play and distribution, and he is a huge presence in the box. He is also probably good for 12-15 goals a season, once he adjusts to the Premier League. But, we need a 25+ goal per season striker and for all of his qualities Zirkzee is not that guy.
What’s more is Hojlund is still very young, and appears to be developing a penchant for injuries. He is simply too inexperienced to be the guy that is going to produce a game winning moment against the world’s elite clubs. He also has yet to prove, at any level, for any team, that he is the guy that is going to score 25+ goals a season. Maybe one day he will, but we need a goalscorer now.
I agree with Alex and John on the pod. We need an experienced striker who can bag goals. We need a focal point in attack. And we need a goalscorer proven in the Premier League.
Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford is a question wrapped inside of an enigma. One season he looks like the next great generational player, the following season even his considerable wealth cant buy him a goal.
To make matters more frustrating for fans, after a slow start to this term, he comes out in the last two matches and bags three goals and an assist, looking like the untouchable player we know he can be.
Rio Ferdinand recently pointed out in an interview that Rashy needs to be happy to perform well. And for most of last season, no one can recount a moment where he was smiling.
Ferdinand went further to say that only a few days ago, after United’s training had finished, he was walking around Carrington with Erik ten Hag for an interview. During the tour, Rio noticed that Bruno and Rashford were still out on the pitch doing extra shooting practice. He pointed out that for the first time in a long while, Rashy look happy, was smiling and joking.
He commented on it to ten Hag who responded with, ‘this is the Rashy I have seen every day since I arrived.’
While I agree with Rio, Rashy is clearly a very deep individual who feels a lot of emotion and responsibility. And he appears incapable of separating his emotional state and his performances on the pitch. Not that this should be a criticism against him, it means he needs to be carefully managed.
However, if ten Hag is to be believed, and Rashy has been happy, or at least content, then what the fuck happened to him last season?… And what can the coaching staff and Rashy’s entourage learn from the past to keep him at his best?…
What Next for Manchester United?
I don’t want to sound like a broken record, or over-iterate what has been said on the pod. That being said, Manchester United are in transition.
Despite being the tagline for every previous administration at United, this is the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired that the front office and owners appear to care more about restoring United’s legacy than about profit margins or dividends.
So, what is next for United?
I expect INEOS to keep pushing the way they have been. Their goal seems to be bringing in the right players and the right staff. Rather than the previous front office’s focus of signing’s that are purely designed to boost United’s social media and marketing pull.
But, FFP issues mean that INEOS and Ashworth cannot transition that many players in and out of the club in a single transfer window. These things take time.
I also believe that in the next 12 months we will have new plans for a new stadium and training facilities. With the aim to break ground on both before the end of 2025.
I am also not convinced that Erik ten Hag will be our long term manager. This is all a giant 3D chess match and INEOS are planning 12 moves ahead. I don’t get the sense that Erik ten Hag is the manager that INEOS will have wanted to inherit. Meaning they will likely drop him at the next opportunity. The recruitment of Ruud van Nistelrooy will only further spark this debate as the season progresses.
What to Expect From Manchester United this Season
Given all of the changes being made at Manchester United, my expectations for this season are very mixed. As I have mentioned ad-nauseum, so many changes in such a short period mean that Untied will not be competing for the Premier League this season.
I am also sure there will be plenty more moments this season, like the Liverpool match as well as the Barnsley match. My expectation is that United will be a Jekyll and Hyde team this season.
That being said, United have also made a lot of progress across the club. The staff and players they have recruited, as well as those who have been let go, represent the clubs intent to return United to the summit of football. Even if that journey requires stepping on a few toes, making unpopular decisions or being ruthless with staff and player turnover.
While I dont expect United to compete with the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool or Arsenal this season, I absolutely believe that United will round out the top four this season.
Another fact to consider is that Erik ten Hag appears to be a bit of a savant when it comes to cup competitions. In two seasons at United, he guided the squad to three cup finals winning two of them.
To that point, If ten Hag can’t finish top four this season and win at least one cup trophy, I would not be surprised to see Ruud van Nistelrooy in the Manchester United hotseat.
Glory, Glory Man United!
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