Queue the Scorpions (the band not the invertebrate)!
There is heavy speculation surrounding Manchester United and what changes might happen this season. Many fans are tired of seeing the McFred double pivot, in spite of it’s relative success. While the summer transfer window may also dictate what tactics Ole can implement for next season.
However, Sancho and Varane are across the line. Ole signed an extension. We finally signed a formal set piece coach. And John Murtough had been named Football Director before last season ended. As a result, expectations on this team grow every day.
Thus, the question burning inside most of us Manchester United fans is, what changes can we expect from United this season?
Changes in Transfer Tactics
In previous transfer windows Manchester United were used to being manhandled by other clubs on transfer fees simply because we are Manchester United. It also didn’t do any good that Woodward was negotiating deals. Our approach meant that every player we were interested in was massively overvalued. The most important changes so far at United have been our transfer strategy.
So far Murtough has done well on incoming transfers, though COVID may have helped in lowering asking prices.
Heaton is solid back up and a great acquisition on a free transfer.
We signed Sancho early(ish) in the window for $40 million less than Dortmund’s original asking price and only $15 million up front.
We signed a world class, world cup winning, four time champions league winning defender in Varane (for half of what we signed Maguire).
Loaning Jessie Lingard to West Ham seems to have reinvigorated him, either boosting his transfer value or his stock with Ole. Either way his loan worked out swimmingly.
And we have an upcoming crop of stellar youth prospects.
All of that is a direct result of Murtough’s, Darren Fletcher’s and Ole’s hard work and should not go undervalued. Let’s just hope it continues and all of this progress isn’t simply temporary placation of the fans by the Glazers.
Will We See Changes in Formation?
A lot of the rumors circulating in the press suggest that Ole wants to convert to a 4-3-3 this season. I don’t think he is oblivious to the monotony that 4-2-3-1 has brought to Old Trafford.
Any argument Ole can make for changes in formation rests almost solely on the rest of our summer transfer dealings. Moreover, the most abstruse unknowns for United, at the moment, are the future of Pogba and our acquisition of a CDM. It would also appear that these two transfers are very much reliant on each other. Thus a 4-3-3 is not a guaranteed change.
I would also argue, we shouldn’t scoff at the potential of continuing the double pivot if we fail to sign a defensive midfielder or just because we’ve signed Varane.
It gave us the fourth best defensive record in the league last season.
We tied for first place with Manchester Shitty for the fewest losses in the Premier League.
United went undefeated away from home last season.
We also made it to a cup final, and a cup semifinal.
And, United finished second place in the league with our highest points tally since the 17/18 season and the second highest points tally since Sir Alex retired.
So, it may not have been the worst tactic on Ole’s part.
The 4-3-3
Varane coming to Old Trafford will almost certainly take our defense to the elite level. If we sign a CDM as well then Ole will have enough confidence in the defensive aspect of the team to make major changes to our formation and tactics.
This also opens more opportunities for the plethora of attacking midfielders, inverted wingers and attacking youth prospects we have. In a 4-3-3, there is simply more room for more attacking and creative players.
Varane adds the recovery speed and positional awareness that our back line has been lacking for some time. This in turn allows for more adventurous tactics and formations because our defense is more reliable. Adding a CDM this summer would only further solidify our defensive third, perpetuating more attacking and progressive play.
Ole seems to subscribe to the idea that the best offense begins with your defense, no matter how good our attacking players are.
Who Benefits the Most from Changes in Formation?
There are a host of benefits to transitioning to a 4-3-3. At the very least, there are just as many benefits from simply adding variety to our formations. For too long have United fans suffered the loathsome style that has come from playing a double pivot in a 4-2-3-1.
The Fans
First, the fans benefit from a more attacking and potentially more entertaining style of football. We also get to see the greatest number of Manchester United’s star players on the pitch at the same time. In the words of Danny Rojas “Futbol is Life!”. But our love, and religious obsession of the game doesn’t devoid it of our desire to see the best players in a United kit.
In this system we could see Pogba, Bruno, Sancho, Rashford and Cavani all in the same lineup. I don’t care who you are, those five playing in front of the best left back in the world on current from in Shaw, a world class CB pairing in Maguire and Varane, and the best defensive fullback in the game, AWB, should send shivers down your spine.
The First Team
Second, obviously the team benefits. With added defensive solidity to perpetuate last season’s great defensive record, United will hopefully keep more clean sheets and clean up our home record.
More than that, it benefits players like van de Beek. In a 4-3-3 we play with two progressive midfielders rather than the single No10 we’ve seen in the 4-2-3-1. Both Pogba and Donny prefer playing as a left sided progressive midfielder which this formation would allow for.
It may have been Ole’s plan all along with Donny to wait to play him more until our formation suits him, which a 4-3-3 would. At Ajax, all van de Beek played was a 4-3-3 so we already know it plays into his strengths and football upbringing.
Those two progressive midfielder slots are also the favored positions for Pogba, Bruno, Lingard, Pellistri, Mata and Hannibal. While Fred also played exceptionally well for Brazil at the Copa this summer in this same position.
Given McTominay’s origin as a striker and his defensive work rate he too may be better suited for this formation. He could easily play as either the holding midfielder or back up as the progressive midfielder.
The Second Team
Lastly it benefits all of our forwards. We have so many attacking players in Bruno, Sancho, Rashford, Martial, Cavani, Greenwood, James, Amad, Lingard, Mata, Pogba, Pellistri, Hannibal, Elanga and Shoretire.
With five attacking slots on the field and potentially 60+ games to play there are more opportunities for these players to get game time. Whether for rotation or competition for places, this formation suits these attacking players better then the 4-2-3-1 we’ve had to suffer for several seasons now.
The 4-3-3 Lineup Changes
If we add a defensive midfielder on top of Varane and Sancho, United fans can lick their lips at the prospects this season. Manchester United would almost certainly have the best starting defense in the Premier League, despite what Stevie Nicol at ESPN says.
We would also have more depth and talent in attack than any other team in the league. And we would have the depth in midfield we have been lacking for so long.
Best Eleven: DeGea, Wan-Bissaka, Shaw, Maguire, Varane, McTominay (Incoming CDM TBD, possibly Rice, Bissouma, Niguez or Neves), Pogba (OR van de Beek if Pogba leaves, left side), Bruno (right side), Rashford (left side), Sancho (right side), Cavani through the middle.
Keep in mind that Sancho will likely start on the left at the beginning of the season until Rashford returns from surgery. This would allow Greenwood to start on the right.
This is definitely the sexiest and most formidable potential formation and lineup we could produce.
A Club in Transition
We have a new DOF and technical director, a few shiny new players, a new formation, a fresh contract for the manager, a new set piece coach, and confirmation the Glazer’s will attend a regular fan forum. Big changes are happening at all levels of the club.
So, what are realistic expectations for United this season?
The short answer, a trophy. Any trophy would do.
The long answer. It depends on if Murtaugh and Co. can sign a defensive midfielder.
Without this acquisition I would expect United to win either the FA or Carabao Cup (preferably the FA cup). I would also expect them to make it out of the group stages of the Champions League.
With regards to the Premier League, I would expect United to finish second or third, but to close the gap to first place to less than ten points. That means we would be pushing for the title but not necessarily expecting it.
If we can land a talented CDM then the whole plot changes. IF we are so lucky, I’d expect United to win either the Carabao or FA cup. I would also be disappointed if they didn’t make it to at least the Champions League semifinal.
However, Ole has made clear that United’s success in the Premier League is the measuring stick he cares most about. If United can bring in another midfield addition to the players we have already signed I would expect United to keep pace at the top of the table and put up a genuine title challenge, maybe even win the league.
What to Expect When You’re Expecting
I am sure all United fans are excited to see Sancho and Varane arrive as it signals serious intent for next season. But, a defensive midfielder should have been our primary transfer target, to avoid continuing with the double pivot in midfield.
I am hopeful that the changes being made at Manchester United bodes well for us in the transfer market. Sancho and Varane will only serve as a temporary stop gap for United fans’ malcontent if we have to spend another season watching the banal, sluggish and unimaginative dross that was Manchester United regularly last season.
However, the signs are there that United’s players are coming together as a group, the executive staff is making better decisions and Ole is picking the right players to bring in.
I for one am optimistic. Though I was also naive enough to believe that we were going to sign Sergio Ramos in 2015 and Sneijder in 2011 and again in 2016. So, take my optimism with the usual grain of salt.
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